4/12/20 Weekend Market Update - INDEXES

The indexes were markedly bullish this week. However, they are all still below their Market Structure Pivot Levels and are all still macro BEARISH by my systematic definition.

SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Still overall Bearish

Momentum: Bullish (but close to exhaustion)

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative (selling underneath)

GEX: Positive

**Executed Puts (only showing Puts): showing a massive amount $285 and under

**Open Interest (only showing Puts): showing there is little OI above 310 level...jives with the current market structure ceiling we are notating.


SPY Summary: Still very much in a bearish market structure even with this bounce, but it is approaching the massive resistance/breakthrough level of 285-300. Above 312 it is fully repaired market structure. Below 300 this could ultimately be a bear market bounce (epic one, but bearish nonetheless).

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Still overall Bearish

Momentum: Bullish Exhaustion

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative (selling underneath)

GEX: Neutral (and very close to a flip point)

**Executed Puts (only showing Puts): showing a massive amount exactly where price is right now. This is a Put Wall. Above here would be bullish. Below here and that was it.

**Open Interest (only showing Puts): different than SPY in that there is Open Interest all the way up to 220. That is noteworthy.


QQQ Summary: Tech could be topping. Resistance is 203.80-216.56. Momentum waning. Selling underneath. Market structure still 8% above. I would not be surprised if this distributed next week and dropped. Bulls want a pull back, bears want to take out 164.50. Bulls should be careful as the FVGs left behind are serious and very separated. If they get filled in a swift fashion then 164.50 probably doesn't hold. Bulls really want to just power through 216.56 quickly and come back for those gaps later.

SOXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Still overall Bearish

Momentum: Bullish Exhaustion

Internals: Turning Down

Block Volume: Negative (selling underneath)

GEX: Neutral (with no positive gamma strikes surrounding it)


SOXX Summary: SOXX, like QQQ, is the leadership in the last 10+ years of bull market action. It would make sense that it would be the leader the opposite direction as well. You can see from the above that there was substantive rejection on Thursday's gap up. It was down 7% at one point from HOD but rebounded into the close. I will be looking at this on the open on Monday and then into the session. Bulls want this to be a pull back that fills gaps in a healthy fashion. Bears want this to be swift work to the downside. 236.42 level is MSL that bulls want to take out and 154.54 is major support if we head to new lows.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Still overall Bearish

Momentum: Bullish (still room for more upside)

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral (selling underneath)

GEX: Negative (even after this move up...Friday)


IWM Summary: FED's panic action on Thursday was targeted at Junk Bonds and IWM (Small Caps). This has room to run to 135.70 in the GEX setup and in the momentum setup. Have to wait and see if it gets there. Still more than bearish market structure at this point still and would require another 15-17% upside to repair it. That is a lot to hope for.

VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Still overall Bullish

Momentum: Reset to Zero (not bullish until there is a cross-over)

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative (selling underneath/no buying yet)


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Still overall Bullish

Momentum: Approaching Reset (not bullish until there is a cross-over)

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative (selling underneath/no buying yet)

GEX: Negative


VIX/VXX Summary: Appears that vol targeted selling is still occurring but because of the heightened levels is requiring so much more and accomplishing so much less than it did. You can see that there is ample support underneath in both VIX and VXX and they are reset momentum readings now. The other disconcerting thing is that we are still above 35-40 which was the max height over every spike between 2010-2019. There is some real serious volatility still being priced in. This has to be watched daily because if a new volatility bull run starts here, it implies plus 100.00 reading vols which would mean new lows in the SPY/SPX. Inversely bulls want to get this crushed below 25 in rapid fashion. That would coincide with the market repair level at 310. All of this lines up very cleanly now.

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