4/12/20 Weekend Update - CURRENCY/TREASURIES/GOLD

There was bullish action in Gold this week, muted action in Treasuries and $USD.


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Still overall Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive


TLT Summary: Consolidation or some price pull back would not be surprising. However, this is in a very strong bullish trend and has a consistently positive GEX structure. As well, there is good support below and we are very much in a volatile regime until we are not. Pull backs are probably bought here.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Still overall Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: N/A

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: This is still bullish market structure. FED doing everything that they can to accommodate $USD shortage and at the same time to try to weaken it. The problem is that is a paradox. The $USD, if it does reset by mid-week next week and remains over the bullish Market Structure level, then it would be bearish factor for indexes.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Still overall Bullish

Momentum: Bullish (but close to exhaustion)

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


GLD Summary: Very positive price action and has outperformed many things on this bull run. FED panic action no doubt fueled it Friday and it is at major resistance. It would be perfectly normal and acceptable to fill some of these lower gaps before a major breakout takes place. In fact that would be preferred because it has 5 FVG gaps below to fill. Needs to fill some of those before it really takes off (which it will over next few years of this monetary science experiment we are living in).

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Still overall Bearish

Momentum: Bullish (but close to exhaustion)

Internals: Neutral/Negative

Block Volume: Positive (but maybe chasing)

GEX: Positive


SLV Summary: This is still a bearish market structure as compared to GLD. This really lost its market structure back in March in the collapse. Although it has been on a good run, it is not repaired. Bulls would like to tag 15.54 and then fill those gaps below rather than collapsing to new lows. Bears want to let the bulls use all their momo to fill the gap and then break their hearts again. I am agnostic SLV and it has been a great trade for me for last 2 years. I think that 15.54 is a major level and if Indexes take a new leg lower, then this could get drug down again (at least to fill some FVGs). I am a buyer at the FVGs if the readings are right. I am not a chaser here.

GDX: (NEW) Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Still overall Bearish

Momentum: Bullish (but close to exhaustion)

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


GDX Summary: Figured to start sharing this as well. Been a good trading vehicle for last 2 years. This is still bearish but unlike SLV looks to very close to repairing market structure. If it can get to 30.00 and exceed it, this means that dips should be bought. Bulls don't want this to fail here at 30.00 though as there are so many FVG gaps below that if they don't get to 30.00 and exceed it, then those gaps could be filled rapidly...and lead to new lows. I am agnostic this. Action here has to be weighed out and really see what happens at 30.00.


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