Defaults = lit match?

Here is the run down as of the end of the day today:

Below the MSL (macro bearish overhead resistance) & waning momentum:











XLU (fell back out of neutral today)

XLV (fell back out of neutral today)







Approaching a Neutral MSL (means net neutral stance - some new additions today):




GDX (fell out from bullish)

Above the MSL (macro bullish support underneath) & resetting momentum:





SECTORS: Bearish trending day - all sell side. There was attempts in almost every ETF to come in during the PM session with buy side volume and it was throttled with sell orders. Take a look at the second frame when reviewing the charts today during your session.

INTERNALS - This is pretty much the picture in the market but the FAANGMs and some semiconductors and some healthcare were still net positive. What happens when the FAANGMs and the rest of these last stand stocks let go as this has been really declining underneath the surface while the indexes are distributing at the surface level of price.

Takeaways for the day:

  • There was some sort of major buyer that was coming in for everything later in the PM session in Indexes, XLF, HY stuff, X ETFs, et al and you could see that in the second frame (look for the green monster chaser bars) but they got killed - why buy here? No idea...

  • Internals all turned down for the individual indexes in almost everything

  • FAANGMs still holding steady and all have earnings next two/three weeks

  • Are AMZN and NFLX turning into the last great bubbles of this liquidity experiment by the FED?

  • TSLA and some other story stocks are looking ripe IF the tide does go out here.

  • PPP ran out of money today so SBA turned away loans...that should go over well..

Oh and Fed's Bostic says in May/June that we could see and should be prepared for unprecedented defaults...

On that note:

  • Dollar was bid

  • 20 YR Treasuries bid

  • VOLs was bid today after OPEX and is readily being accumulated at these lower levels now

Final Thought: All it will take at this point is one match...just keep that in the back of your mind. Not saying it is going to roll over and head lower imminently. It just appears that the setup is there to light another volatility fire and if it happens with defaults this time vs. liquidity, it will look and feel a lot different than liquidity fire we just experienced in March.

More tomorrow - stay safe - cash is never trash.

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