HIGH SPEED RAIL
Here is the run down as of the end of the day today:
Below the MSL (macro bearish overhead resistance) & waning momentum:
Approaching or at/a Neutral MSL (means net neutral stance - some new additions today):
Above the MSL (macro bullish support underneath) & resetting momentum:
SECTORS: All over the place today - and the after hours session was even more manic.
INTERNALS - Today again all about the FAANGs (specifically AMZN and NFLX) and then AMD and NVDA joined the vertical spike party as well. Not really a group effort as you can see that the rest of the market was predominantly declining. Rising tech lifts all ships?
Absolute Breadth to me is the battle that matters as it can now go either way based on the below. We get to neutral and you will see the MSLs potentially go to neutral/bullish...tbd.
Takeaways for the day:
Really was a Dramamine day in the sense that we opened...dropped to 2750...bounced ~2.5%...dropped ~2.5%...bounced ~2.5% and then flat into close kinda...
The distribution zones kicked everything out in the morning. Back inside them by close.
AMZN, NFLX, AMD, and NVDA were vertical (not even parabolic)
After hours markets were very volatile as Trump re-opened the US (kinda sorta)...but the MSLs will surely be tested tomorrow.
2900 level was pretty important to GEX from most readings...we are trading at 2875 right now in After Hours...this makes OPEX very interesting tomorrow.
Dollar was bid again
20 YR Treasuries bid again
VOLs was bid today after OPEX and is readily being accumulated at these lower levels now and got shot into the lower levels in the after hours Trumpathon - it was purchased.
Thin market is still very apparent.
Tomorrow is OPEX. We are at some (not all) major inflection points in regards to Market Structure Levels (MSLs), a lot of trend lines, VOLs etc. My plan is to see what happens before I call anything to firmly. I have seen too many times in highly volatile periods (defined by VIX over 30-35) that things can overshoot and then reverse both directions and crush both sides.
We are in some uncharted waters here (in the markets) and I will be the first one to flip MSL's and become bullish if that is how this unfolds but hopefully you are picking up by looking at the difference in the MSL and price levels with a TLT for example vs. what you are seeing with the SPY. TLT (and GLD for that matter) is very clearly bullish. SPY is beginning to get murky, but not really clearly bullish - more neutral if it busts the MSL because it still has to settle in at the higher levels and turn those gaps below into demand zones before proceeding higher.
So don't get over charged either way. These levels could easily breach and then reject - they are MAJOR MARKET LEVELS so respect them and let the dealers and market participants pick sides here. This is one of those moments that narratives be damned - really gotta look at the quantitative side of this and when you look at that it is much less murky (turning more neutral if anything).
More tomorrow - stay safe - cash is never trash.