4/18/20 WEEKEND Update - CURRENCY/TREASURIES/GOLD

GLD pull-back. Treasuries and $USD also hit short term resistance.


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Positive

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive


TLT Summary: It appeared that price would hit the upper resistance on Friday and a pullback was probable. That is how it played out. The next step is to monitor the green accumulation box. Should price get back in there, the reaction is important. IF the broad market is entering a realized risk-on phase, then TLT may not hold that box as money rotates into risk assets. Need to monitor this pull back this week. Alternate stance is that this is BTD until it isn't as risk isn't gone and this is buying opp in the green box and if it does take another stab at upside resistance it is highly likely to break it.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Still in a MONITOR status. Hit resistance and pulled back into the green accumulation box. Nothing of major to note here. This is one of the most important monitors going into the back half of April. I look for this to front run issues potentially (IF they are to appear).

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive (but collapsing)

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


GLD Summary: Rejected from the box and lost the 159.38 level. Very much in an orderly pull back. I would monitor the momentum indicator and use it with the FVG levels to time an entry into this. As long as it stays above 136.41, very bullish long term. This is easier trading because the trend is very defined and the levels are easily marked for attempted entry.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Turned over

Block Volume: Positive (declining)

GEX: Negative


SLV Summary: Now we know what was going on with Silver. GEX totally changed on OPEX. There must have been some serious action under the surface. I have had no position for sometime, so I have not looked under the options hood. I expect this to probe lower levels if 14.06 goes (which it should). Look at the 3 other FVGs in coordination with the momentum measurements to look for an entry if you are inclined. However, I am not bullish unless this holds and FVG and this price structure could easily make another low.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Peaked and falling

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive


GDX Summary: Got kicked out of the distribution level and closed the week below 29.94. Selling should kick in here and test those lower level FVGs that were left behind during this bullish run. I do think the lower low conversation has diminished here but where this holds support is pretty important as well how price structure unfolds in the next two weeks. Will keep monitoring.


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