4/18/20 WEEKEND Update - INDEXES

Coverage of SPY, QQQ, SOXX, DIA, IWM, & VXX.

SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Still overall Bearish

Momentum: Bullish (exhaustion)

Internals: Turned back up

Block Volume: Positive (but waning)

GEX: HEAVY Positive (but this is raw vs. skew-adjusted so keep that in mind)


SPY Summary: Price is approaching the top of the distribution box. If that doesn't hold I would expect this to test the 295-300 level (if not the MSL altogether). The internals are indicative of continued advancement but on thinner and thinner volume which is not ideal for longer term continuation. The entire index is being carried by health care and tech leaving behind most everything else. That makes this questionable for sustainability however if volatility remains muted, risk-on could materialize.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish Exhaustion

Internals: Turned up

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: HEAVY Positive (but this is raw vs. skew-adjusted so keep that in mind)


QQQ Summary: This didn't get back to the highs of the after hours moves on Thursday. AMZN and NFLX both ran into resistance on Thur/Fri. The MSL is a major inflection point. through the MSL I highlighted the potential (11-12%) up to the previous trend line and ATH. Getting to neutral now doesn't mean bullish outright, as price needs to back test support, hold, and then make a solid advance (I drew an example). Having said that, there is a complete argument to be made that this is a thin leadership advance on low volume that will be rejected. IF that is to play out all these FVGs can get filled after a fake break of the MSL that is quickly reversed. I cannot give you a perspective on that as AMZN and NFLX are bullish here until they are not and the FAANGMs are 47% of this index, so if they are bullish this will remain bid more than likely - but if the FAANGMs struggle here, be aware.

SOXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish Exhaustion

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Neutral


SOXX Summary: MONITOR. This is at serious inflection. MSL/3 YR Bullish Trend line support that was lost in March...etc. A break thru here that is sustained and fills the upper FVG gap (yellow) would be bullish followed by a retest and hold of support. A stall and fail here or a fake breakout-rejection of the MSL and the 3 YR trend line could be quite bearish. The momentum reading here could crack hard IF it does, so be very aware of this. IF this gets super bullish, it could imply risk-on...but failure would be notable.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish (x-over)

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive (barely)

GEX: Positive

DIA Summary: Similar to IWM structure if DIA can get up and thru the 246 level, then easily can get to the 252.85 level. IF the 252.85 level is attained, that puts the MSL into play. The index did not get through the after hours high that was in place on Thursday night...so needs to get moving on Monday. TRIN was very bearish on Friday and just like everything this is up on thin volume and a few primary stocks - even momentum is crossed under with a bearish setup brewing. The next week is quite important to the longer term perspective for DIA.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish (x-over)

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative (but this is raw vs. skew-adjusted so keep that in mind)


IWM Summary: This bounced back Friday and was up quite a bit (but never took out the after hours high from Thursday). IF this gets thru 124.76 it can run (and should) all the way to 135.70. IF that happens then we would be looking at MSL challenge at 141.67. IF this fails at 124.76 (or even at 135.70), then look for this to have a very difficult time in the months ahead. Bulls want this to get through the MSL and flip the structure as that would imply a new bull and risk-on.

VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Reset to Zero (still no confirmed bullish momentum)

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Positive

Internals: Neutral (turning up)

Block Volume: Turned Up (selling underneath is diminishing/no buying yet)

GEX: HEAVY Negative (but this is raw vs. skew-adjusted so keep that in mind)


VIX/VXX Summary: This got kicked back into the accumulation zone. This upcoming week, when looking at all the particular inputs across the board, will be very key for VOLs. Bulls want to put a fork in volatility this week - and take out that accumulation zone and get VIX under 30. That would imply that most MSLs would be neutral and if they can get VOLs to under 25 then most MSLs would be bullish. The bullish push is for that and has been a stampede the last 2 weeks. This week should provide us with more details about this. What would be negative implication for continued bullish advance would be rising VIX/VXX with rising internals or even flat/neutral VIX/VXX with rising internals. Either of these with a rising price in SPY would be bearish for the SPY...tbd...

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