4/18/20 WEEKEND Update - INTERNALS

End of the week readings below with details.


TRIN:

Takeaway: All four ETFs finished bearish. At these levels there is natural selling from purchases at much lower levels. However, all four are close to the red (if not fully in the red) so there is a flag of caution for continued advancing as the volume of the Advancers was not strong...and it was dangerously low for the QQQs.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: All bullish here. But TRIN has some strong negative readings so these Advancer readings were not on heavy volume (indicates thinning of buying pool at these levels). Just keep that in your back pocket.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: NYSE AD turned back up but does have quite a bit of resistance overhead. This is a common theme that I am noticing throughout the readings today in that there is a very narrowing of volume of the advancing that is taking place.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Cumulative volume was strong for Friday session but it's momentum is crossed over bearish. Bulls want to turn this completely back up.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Bulls targeted overall market (not just VIX) volatility hard Wed-Friday and did accomplish to get this out of the volatility range and headed towards neutral. Complacency and eliminated volatility is the goal for them. 'Neutral' would more than likely create net neutral MSLs and a 'Complacency' reading here would indicate that we are in bullish MSLs. This would coincide with GEX readings that are markedly bullish BTD mentality. We are not yet there, but this is important to note.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Crept back up to a sell signal again, almost. Bulls want to turn that momentum into another 100.00 level reading and try to keep it there this time. What bulls don't want to see is no progress with price and for this to increase to sell/embedded. They really need price to keep moving upwards to reset levels or these readings could turn on them.


INTERNALS Summary: Advancing is continuing but on thinner and thinner volume. Overall volatility is dropping to a more neutralized state which is a plus and indicative or more advancing potentially. That is the greatest takeaway. This coincides with the assumption that the market is going to return to normal as the COVID-19 situation is mis-priced. Whether that is accurate or not is not something I will not address. That is how these readings are coming across. We are at some pretty substantive inflection points, so these readings become very important next week. What would be a better posture for bulls thesis here is if there was better TRIN (volume behind the advancing), but that has been weak last few days. Have to wait and see next week. Bulls want more 'umph' behind the buying...not just higher prices on thinner and thinner participation. That is how gaps below get filled quickly.

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