4/28/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the market.

QUICK SUMMARY:


Ramp-n-Didn't Camp Day:


  • Volatility held support and closed green...VIX +0.84% and VXX +0.49%%.

  • UUP was bid on the early morning weakness and still range bound at high levels.

  • The Ketchup Team (IWM/XLF/XHB/XRT) were at it again at the open with the overnight futures ramp but they did not complete the 'camp' phase of the 'ramp-n-camp' pattern...XLF gave it back, XRT gave it back, and IWM/XHB held most gains into the close.

  • SPY was bid up 1.5% from ES futures but after the Mnuch was done...market sold off (I am just joking here...he is not a technical indicator I use or something).

  • Oil down big overnight but came back strong to finish down a little bit (-2.74%).

  • Semiconductors went for the MSL today and got shot down. Then AMD got gut punched AH on earnings.

  • Tech was weak all day and finished down about 1% but short term P/C finished bullish...bounce attempt tomorrow?

  • HYG...nothing to see here.

  • DIA back into the box but got kicked out at the trend line resistance.

  • FAANGs were notably down today - but GOOG is up 9% AH as I type this on earnings...see what happens tomorrow and Thursday with rest of them.

  • Internals are burning out bearish end on a down day...not bullish

  • Absolute Breadth spiked this AM and is now piercing higher...more broad context vol approaching?


We got follow through in the overnight session to the upside and were very much in the nose bleeds at the open...so sell off today makes sense because of the burnt out price action to the upside last 2 days. But I wouldn't mistake this for a specific trend change just yet. FOMC is tomorrow and any more definitive market trend will come after that occurs and the rest of this week's earnings clear.


What is notable today is that XBI and XLV did have sell side completion bars to their termination patterns. I mentioned these patterns yesterday and they actually shook out for these two ETFs today. They both have been up everyday with no significant pull backs to speak of since late March. Both had engulfing bearish candles today (4-5% total High-to-Low drops) and are the biggest losers below in the sector diagram. This is new. These have been the primary leaders in this push higher since March. Also AMZN and NFLX both were very weak today. Add to that we had the Absolute Breadth reading that we had today and things are looking to be potentially pivoting trend.


VIX still is not bullish and we have some more to chew through this week. But I think the easy money on the bullish side is done and it could get a lot more complicated in the weeks ahead. Samantha LaDuc, who runs LaDuc Trading (@SamanthaLaDuc), had a super illuminating tweet today showing the loan loss provisions from AXP (American Express) just released - they are exponentially higher than 2008's worst provisions (she is a must follow if you aren't).


I have been hearing and seeing this RE the banks and finance co.'s for a couple weeks now and I am of the opinion that we are going to be starting to enter the default phase of this event now. That could be much trickier than the liquidity dip we have just experienced down and then up. So, bulls, if you have been making money on this liquidity bounce, lock in those gains on up moves and wait to see if this finds some support on the drops...don't get greedy. I say this because IWM Put/Call Ratio was in the greed layer this AM. There is a lot to play out here in the next few days/week and you don't want to be giving it back. Bears on the other hand, let's see if the VIX really wants to settle up here in the 30's before turning higher before we get aggressive shorting heavily.


SECTORS:

Sector Takeways: Home Builders short squeeze today...biotech and health care and tech (previous leaders) started to go the other direction. Outside of the previously mentioned, pretty muted action.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Reset - Neutral

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish (close to resetting)

Internals: Negative (turned up)

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative (but less than Monday)


VIX/VXX Summary: Today VIX/VXX found support. Internals turned up. GEX massive negative imbalance came down by half. Tomorrow being the FOMC, we will have to see what the day looks like before and after. The buyer side block volume is increasing...and internals are trying to get to the zero line. Pending tomorrow's action, there may be a more intermediate term bottom being set...but we have to see what happens tomorrow before that is confirmed.



INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: Neutral action for the most part - IWM was stronger out the gate today but finished markedly off the HOD.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Tech looks to be leading here. Otherwise nothing notable here.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Bulls winning 2-0 this week here with NYSE A/D but price lagged. Momentum is near max out and still a lot to chew to get the MSL to flip above.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Solid volume again today but stopped right at resistance. Momentum is in the upper end of the range and price is starting to stall.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: MONITOR. Big spike today off the big bar yesterday. Momentum has tons of overhead room. This is a serious thing to monitor because the spike in March came from 'Complacency' level base. This is coming from 'Neutral' level base. If this continues could be serious broad market volatility coming.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Made it to the embedded level. Couldn't hold it. Momentum still has a little more in the tank so this can continue tomorrow potentially. Have to wait and see.


INTERNALS Summary: Internals were mixed/bullish today. Price action was not. Now internals are close to hitting the top end of the range of momentum and price seems tapped out too. Readings could be topped out tomorrow across the board on any attempted upside price action...have to wait and see.


INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral/Bearish


SPY Summary: Sellers did show up today at the open. Distribution box rejected price and internals (money and velocity) dropped. Put/Call is bearish/neutral reading but GEX still fairly positive. More clarity tomorrow on this post FOMC more than likely. No edge short term.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Bullish


QQQ Summary: Bearish day for QQQ with GEX negative, internals dumping over and sellers showing up with negative block volume. However Put/Call finished bullish so maybe eager bears a hair early? Idk. But this is starting to have repeated failures at the MSL and that is not bullish. See what this looks like tomorrow after FOMC and earnings.

SOXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive (dropped)

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative


SOXX Summary: MONITOR. Biggest sell bar of the last 30 days. Internals popped and dropped from yesterday. Momentum closed to tapping out. MSL rejection hard on the nose today and the orange bull market support trend line (now resistance) also working against price. AMD down 5-6% AH on earnings...have to see if the rest follow suit this week. Notable failure thus far though...

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive (dropping)

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Neutral

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral


DIA Summary: Dow Jones had a firm rejection at the previous bullish trend channel support today. Still in the distribution box and struggling. Internals failed today and block volume went negative. Watching this for failure now...have to see what happens. P/C ratio finished muted for the day so coin flip for tomorrow.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Bullishness


IWM Summary: I said last night this could run to 130-134. We were there this AM and you can see the spike down in P/C ratio that I mentioned above there in the AM today. Getting greedy here in IWM in my opinion as most defaults will take place in XLF and IWM. GEX still negative but momentum is still positive. So if you are still riding the train, be cautious of the blue trend line above...that is very serious resistance.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative


XLF Summary: This was a definite short squeeze in banks last 2 days, as you can see how far the GEX has moved last few days. But as mentioned yesterday, the $23 level was pretty serious resistance at the top of the box and that is where it hit and dropped hard intra-day. Still can take a stab at $24 but momentum is starting to run out here. Watch this for failure outright or further squeeze potential if over $23.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: HEAVY Negative


HYG Summary: There was nothing of note here today on HYG - finished relatively unch. Notes on the chart.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive


TLT Summary: Price bounced off the first EMA support. GEX is positive. Internals turned back up. Selling starting to slow. Momentum still bearish. Could see another day or two of back and forth here...

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


UUP Summary: Still in a MONITOR status. Bounced off support early in the session. It appears to me that the heavy accumulation is done and any time we dip it is supplemental accumulation. This stays at this price level post FOMC tomorrow and into month end, a couple more days may reset the momentum with price even closer to the breakout level...let's see what happens here...tomorrow FOMC could be meaningful (or not) for the $USD.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


GLD Summary: Gold could bounce tomorrow into FOMC, as we are testing that previous resistance level (which if it bounces, will become support). Internals are dropping hard now. Momentum is turning down bearish (more seriously this time) and GEX has come down the last few days...so I think next week or two, you should see this start to fill some gaps. Doesn't mean it will...just my opinion. I am not a buyer here.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


SLV Summary: This didn't impress today. Turned bearish. Having said that to read anything prior to FOMC for this or GDX is futile. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


GDX Summary: GDX really looks like it wants that higher high on the chart (if not a little more?)...but tomorrow is the FOMC. All the makings for a pull back, but one can never know the reaction to the FOMC statement and interview afterwards relating to the PM space. I will refrain to comment in depth until after tomorrow RE GDX.

SPECIAL REQUEST: TANKERS


Had a couple requests today to look at Tankers. It is not a space I trade, so I thought it would be useful to just apply our quant strat to this and use our system as an example for everyone. Two followers gave me their 4 desired securities. I have broken them down below. Our app that we are launching in June will give you all this data below (so you won't have to ask me and hopefully help you make your trading decisions on the fly real time).


The details from this exercise are pretty interesting. I have ZERO idea the current narratives on all this, so I am simply looking at this with clean eyes and using the system.


NAT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


NAT Summary: Bullish MSL. Pretty heavily bid block volume. Momentum is toppy and lots of chasing. FVGs are 5.84 and 4.74. FVG resistance left behind from 2016 is up at 10.55. Expect this one to roam free in the blue box but is bullish above 4.74. Expect some price pull backs with readings this high on momentum...too far too fast chart...

STNG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


STNG Summary: Bullish MSL. resistance is 31.08. Pretty exhausted short term and FVGs and MSL much lower. Price will find resistance at 30.00 level and support at 20. Pretty big area so expect swings. Based on this, should get an entry lower after potential run at 30.00 level (or not).



EURN: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative


EURN Summary: Bullish MSL but this looks like it is topping out intermediate term. That is major resistance over head and there is 4 gaps left behind and the largest gap is way below. The internals structure on this is the ugliest thing about it...with major seller bars up into these higher levels. Be cautious any further upside. Look for readings at support levels notated.


FRO: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

FRO Summary: Bearish MSL on this one that goes back a few years and that makes sense why it is struggling to get through it. Bullish picture is building intermediate term but the momentum is negative and so is the internals. I would expect a pull back to the local support areas. The FVG at 4.97 is crazy to think about...but they did leave it behind (as shown on the chart)...as they say...gaps get filled most of the time.


THE END.


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