5/1/20 WEEKEND Update: ETF 'X' INDEXES

Week Ahead Coverage of the SPDR X ETFs

XLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive (but dropping with velocity x-over under money flow)

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative


XLV Summary: Failure to recapture the MSL. Now money flow and volume velocity are dropping towards zero line. GEX is markedly negative. Block volume flipping to negative (sellers in control). Bull bear pivot is around 94...momentum is really negative here, so I am not sure that pivot holds (may try) but the real bullish/bearish intermediate term test is at the 87-90 level in price. I could see that hit quick and then bounce back to 94...something to that effect.

XLU: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative


XLU Summary: Utilities got distributed and now are dropping hard out of the box and have been a leading indicator to an extend for the other patterns in price. 50.90-53.00 level should be where it is really tested for whether full fledged bear or whether we bounce a little first.

XBI: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Negative

Internals: Positive (dropping hard)

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative


XBI Summary: Had the write up about this on Thursday and then it continued to drop on Friday. I expect the 83.30-86.84 level to act as an attempted support at first (but should fail based on these internals readings) and then real test will be the 75.87 level. Below that new lows on tap. Take it one level at a time but this is bearish under the MSL and could accelerate to the downside with little notice. Bull bear pivot may act as support early in the week after another 5% lower. Momentum is really heavy bearish looking at the moment.

XLRE: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive (but dropping harder now)

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative


XLRE Summary: Looks exactly like XLU in that the distribution seems to be completed and the next leg is down vs. up for now. Problem with this is only support is 32.50 area (1% lower which is nothing) and if that goes then lower FVG fill will happen quickly with the look of the GEX above an that is 29.34. That is a pretty gnarly move if it materializes. This is dangerous bearish setup here with air pockets below and a crack crossover in momentum...see what happens.

XHB: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative


XHB Summary: Super short squeeze early in the week that gave back some on Thursday and Friday. GEX map has 35 level being supported but if below that can get to 29.65 quickly. There may be some back and forth here around the 35 level or this could drop next week...50/50.

XME: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive (but dropping hard)

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


XME Summary: Metals and mining are weak as it Emerging Markets. Price moved up this past week into the resistance area on the broad heavily shorted stocks squeeze fest but dropped and lost the first support on Friday. This is still a mixed looking sector as it has some exposure to PMs (which are hot) and most exposure to mining (which is not). If 17.43 level goes this probably is headed to new lows.

XRT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative


XRT Summary: Squeeze early in the week and total fail on Thursday and Friday. Momentum is markedly bearish after Thursday and Friday. GEX is very negative now with major resistance overhead. Seller block volume took over Thursday and Friday. Money flow and volume velocity are still above zero so could portend some attempts to chop, but 34.71 level has to hold or heading to 30.20 in short order.

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