5/11/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

Updated: May 12

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the market.

QUICK SUMMARY:


Running on Fumes:


  • Volatility seems pretty exhausted to the downside but the ETF had some catching up to do today to get in line with VIX so bifurcation between the two percentage wise w/ VIX -1.47% and VXX -5.72%

  • UUP finished up slightly but internals were very strong again +0.22%

  • TLT blasted through downside support today and looking dicey here -0.68%

  • SPY finished +0.00% and looks very heavy

  • QQQ finished up +0.74% but also looks like it is down to the final bio/tech stocks advances

  • IWM was the weakest of the bunch -0.95%

  • SOXX closed red -0.10% after touching upside FVG left behind at the wick top last week

  • FAANGs all green ... shocker

  • HYG -0.56% on positive momentum which is a little interesting...sellers over taking action

  • XLF -2.02% on the day and taking posture to rally more next week

  • XRT/XLRE/XME/XHB all weak advances today or red/flat

  • XBI the biggest winner +4.87%


The market was all red except for biotech primarily and tech. But that was enough along with FAANGMs to push the NDX to new highs and pull up SPX to unch at the end of the day. IWM clearly doesn't have any tech or biotech (COVID cure hope bids?) so it is clearly the weakest followed by DIA.


SOXX was also weak today after it filled the FVG it left behind last week and closed unch even with NVDA and AMD raging early in the day.

VOLs were beat up pretty good. They are not anywhere near bullish now, but they didn't get toilet flushed down the shitter into the close. Targeting gets a little more cautious when VIX calls starting getting bought around the .50 strikes in bulk it appears. We also started to inch our way into VIX calls today at the lows and will keep adding if/when we get weakness this week (take them out further into the curve is typically our strategy). But overall VOLs meh.


$USD very strong. TLT was weak today and did try to salvage something at the close but scary ugly setup forming there without a stick save and most everything else was weaker today than expected when should have been much stronger. Advance Decline and many of the other indicators weak too...so we are running on fumes now. How long can Tech/FAANGMs/Biotech keep this ship together?


Guess that is the multi-trillion dollar question right? Notes and notations below.


SECTORS:

Sector Takeways: All red except for Biotech and Tech and FAANGMs.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative


VIX/VXX Summary: Put most of my comments up above, but the VXX was throttled today but seemed to be more of a re-balancing push type move to more align it with where VIX already is than a further gutting. Having said that it is now in it's life support zone but the close was not a toilet flush, so maybe that means something...maybe it doesn't. VIX was flatter today - have to take it day by day.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: Bullish into the close for 3/4. IWM call buyers refuse to give up (see intra-day spikes below on their PC chart).


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: All bearish except for EXACTLY the 49% of the QQQ that is FAANGS and GILD...ha.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Red today but momentum is bullish trend for now.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Red cumulative vol reading but momentum turned up


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: MONITOR. Closed red but up off the low and momentum is neutral. Have to evaluate more tomorrow. Seems indecisive more than anything at the moment.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: So so reading here too. Momentum x-over up but reading closed red.


INTERNALS Summary: Neutral at best, leading to the downside at the worst. Need more clarity tomorrow with readings pretty scattered.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Neutral

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral/Bearish


SPY Summary: Pattern changed. Heavy red overnight and green all day. GEX neutral now and Blocks heavy sell side but money and velocity turned up a little. PC still neutral. Still could see leaking to the upside or this could get hammered at any moment. Total dice roll now.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Call Buying Levels


QQQ Summary: There will not be a red day until the FAANGs and Biotech turns over. This is going to be a mess when it breaks as it is attracting all the capital flight. Until then, it is a shorts worst nightmare as the setup is there but the price is relentless. Don't get sacrificed here to the market gods on either side of this pig.

SOXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative


SOXX Summary: MONITOR. Still indecisive and still in the heavy resistance area and it has yet to break through. It is running out of time and attempts honestly. Needs to bust this through ASAP or seller are going to get really serious with it.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Call Buying


DIA Summary: Dow Jones range bound for 30 days. Break of the range will bring expansion. Said that the other day and will say it again now. It is struggling up into the range for over 45 days...

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral/Bearish


IWM Summary: Was predominantly weak today, but there was strength in the midday session that brought back a lot of the price breaks to normal levels, so have to wait to see more clues tomorrow.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative


XLF Summary: Red price of substance and pushed it into the negative strikes on the GEX. This is trouble for bulls if downside ever comes back in the broad market because this is in such bad shape it will have an impact.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: HEAVY Negative


HYG Summary: Nothing notable here in HYG....again. Just range bound.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative


TLT Summary: Definitely not setting a local bottom now. This is in trouble unless it takes back 163-164 quickly. Leaking to 158 sets up potential crash move below. Be aware this has deteriorated in the last week or two and needs stick save now and turnaround of could get cracked.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Heavy Positive

GEX: Positive


UUP Summary: Jammed into the resistance today and did not fail. Bullish setup is in place in every way. 4th time a charm?

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive


GLD Summary: Lost the upper support level (turned back to resistance) and internals picking up steam. Could be starting to turn over here and there was notable weakness in GDX today...keep your eyes out on this if you are long.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


SLV Summary: Silver was bought off the lows this morning and finished unch. Having said that, it is still weak. No impulsive follow through on volume...so still in no man's land here.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive


GDX Summary: Breaking down from the apex point back test. Looks extremely heavy now. Continued strength in this setup now would be negative for longer term. Bulls want this to fill some lower gaps in a healthy manner. Keep your eyes on this too.

THE END.


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