5/18/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the market.

QUICK SUMMARY:


Easy Money:


  • Volatility probably should be in a coffin today but nothing new and actually closed higher than I thought it would. Closed w/ VIX -8.12% and VXX -6.45%

  • UUP finished no breakout and will spend another week in the accumulation zone closed down -0.81%

  • TLT got Marshawn Lynch stiff arm today in the secondary and thrown to the turf closed down -2.20%

  • SPY bullish trending day up +3.05%

  • QQQ looked kinda weak today compared to the other teammates finished only up +1.86%

  • IWM got the game ball and the small cap CEOs are at their very much attended post-game interviews in the locker room right now closing +6.08%

  • SOXX broke through the MSL today and resistance closing +4.59%

  • FAANGs were punks today. No one interested in them and everyone at the IWM lockers asking questions (and NFLX even put in red day?)

  • HYG +1.77% and broke up and out of the range bound area and towards the distribution box

  • XLF was heard asking "you like apples?....because we are up +5.13% up today...how you like them apples?!" Just gloating burning the short selling bears today.


Bullish trend day that started with another monster overnight gap that started with another planned Federal Reserve Chairman interview talking about another round of money printer stuff or whatever...ugh just shoot me with this zero price discover shit.


I don't care that the markets went up because we were flat tactical account on Friday as I mentioned over the weekend and were only looking to add more shorts higher longer term accounts and add more $DX futures ($UUP proxy for us) on a pull back this week in the $USD. So I really could care less but this is pretty insulting here. 'Easy money' is what this is at the moment for bulls and in my life, there has proven to be no such thing. Maybe everything has changed in life now and central planning solves it all. I will take the under on that in the long run.


But short run, not a whole lot bearish besides some pull backs that will be bought this week. VIX doesn't look terrible considering and absolute breadth didn't collapse today but this week could be boring. What is interesting is that I pointed out how scary the situation was starting to look this weekend and we get the 'we will buy ETFs (pretty much) statement this weekend'...the market wasn't even down, it just was setup to bust. It appears, from my seat and looking at this as game theory, that they are TERRIFIED of something. What? All jokes aside, what are they so afraid of? I guess we will find out at some point but this is all pretty abnormal. Anyways on to better things.


All week this week I will be adding more and more samples of stuff that we are wrapping up development on. New stuff this week will be:

  • Max Pain for Options

  • Options Visualizer

  • Volatility Workspace (which tracks unique vol term structure for ETFs)

  • Options Lab samples (we have our own Options Lab that lets you run 40+ proprietary strategies for any scenario you want to setup) so I will show you some samples of that and how it works

  • We built our own Live Charts with all the stuff that I show here (all built-in like FVGs and Momentum algo) but with more stuff that is really necessary to complete the analysis of securities like Volume Profiles, VPOCs, and S/D zones. I will share some samples of this too to give you an idea of what you have to work with.


If you haven't already and want to be a part of the app beta in June (have to add your email here to the blog site at the bottom in order to be a part of it) make sure to do that this week and next as we will begin to send out the beta logins (which will give you free access to everything in the app for the beta) first week of June. As much as you love reading my smart ass remarks about the markets, I am pretty sure that you want to just try different things and supplement your own analysis as well as look at much more than just the primary indexes that you have here in the blog. The app covers 30,000+ stocks, 3,500 ETFs, and 30,000+ mutual funds - all with real time data from the exchanges (no delays).


See what I mean...already starting with the shameless app promotion. All the usual stuff is below. Enjoy.

SECTORS:

Sector Takeways: Money printer go brrrrr b/c 'well, yes, we do digital printing'

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bearish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative


VIX/VXX Summary: Down today as expected but VIX still holding that pesky 29ish level and VXX held 33.50 level (which is that green little bar there on the GEX chart) which is fascinating. I was expecting a total burial today with this as that is what should have happened with such a strong bearish trending day to break down some of these levels that have been holding. Maybe that happens later this week or maybe this means something. Starting to really compress that lower bound of momentum so bulls better finish this off here or they will regret it.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: All bullish except for IWM close which makes sense with some profit taking.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: All bullish pacman patterns gobbling up bears. Really rich green coloring which we added when it's even more bullish (fancy stuff...)


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Bullish pop and bullish momentum. It's bullish.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Spike bar today with some umph. Bullish especially with momentum at lower end with few days of room above.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: MONITOR. No vol here, but a bounce off the neutral zone. Will monitor as the week progresses.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Tons of momentum to take this back to up high ranges. Can it get the pair of Air Jordan's this week? Might try...I mean maybe Tom McClellan has been watching the Jordan documentary...


INTERNALS Summary: Internals are neutral now with the exception of AB which is looking like there COULD be more broad market and realized volatility sooner than later. Have to see where this is probably Monday as tomorrow could be a big nothing burger (or it may not).

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral/Bearish


SPY Summary: If there isn't a turn here in the next day or two, this should test 300.99 level, then 306 then ultimately the MSL with the current setup. Something can always change, but this is taking the more direct route up now.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Bending towars Excessive Call Buying


QQQ Summary: Not as bullish today as IWM but realistically what is left for QQQ but another all-time high? I wouldn't be surprised by that at this point sometime in the next week. It's pretty close to where we are now.

SOXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative



SOXX Summary: Broke back up through resistance. Third time the charm to take out the FVG above? We will have to see this week. No matter what still getting really sold underneath.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Call Buying (WtF?)


DIA Summary: Dow Jones has two FVGs at 246 adn 252. It's bullish right now for the time being. Should this get up through 252 it will test 267. I mean it's only like 90% of airplanes being grounded for lack of use/demand right?!...what gets more bullish than that! GTFO. Price getting ripped around by algo programmatic level buying here.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral


IWM Summary: Big huge day today for IWM. Can free range up here if through the 134 level all the way up to the 141 level. Hard to even believe that but we are not talking about 'fundamentals here' just talking about market structure levels. Folks would be pretty bullish with IWM at 141 I think.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative


XLF Summary: GEX is restructured here. Get through 23 and this goes to 26. How bullish would everyone be if XLF went to 26 lol. I have no position in Banks right now - but this could rally hard if it gets through 23. We will have to see what happens. Wouldn't change anything bigger picture.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: HEAVY Negative


HYG Summary: Bullish trend buying today. Up big. Not surprised after 1.25 months of range bound action. GEX supportive of positive action up to $83 level which is back into the distribution box. So net/net = nothing changed big picture as nothing is fixed big picture. Liquidity is not solvency. All/most of these are insolvent.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative


TLT Summary: Had too many FVGs lefts behind last week from the initial bullish price action (3 gaps) so they all got filled today. GEX dropped back to negative/neutral so we will see if this is kicked around like a soccer ball this week or if it settles out here at a higher low.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Heavy Positive

GEX: Positive


UUP Summary: Price left behind an FVG at 26.82 last week. That will get filled in the next few days. There was buying into the weakness today and to see weakness today is not surprising. Still within range for all intents and purposes and still very strong intermediate term. This week may be juke box yet again which makes it look even more like the Eurodollar in 2019 than before.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive


GLD Summary: You can see the congestion up here at these price levels. This is going to be harder to break through than anything prior to this as this resistance area is 10 years old. Today's candle on what is the most bullish statements for Gold ever by the FED is what I am referring to. Gold has been front running the 60 minutes interview for some time now. Now what? What carries it forward? Short term is going to be challenging - long term should be fine as there will be more 60 minutes interviews and more digital printing as Jay puts it.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


SLV Summary: Rally is solid but is running into the levels as mentioned this weekend. Has to break up and over 17.51 level in order to regain bullish MSL status. Still some strength in here at this point and should at least target that level this week. What happens there and what happens after is imporant for this complex.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish X-over

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


GDX Summary: Price rejected around the $40 level. Easy money is over here. $40 level is going to cause real conjestion/indigestion for bulls at the minimum. If they chew through it, that process will take some time.

THE END.


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