5/26/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

Updated: May 27

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

QUICK SUMMARY:


What a shit show. The bulls were THROWING SO MUCH SHADE on FinTwit today. Had to turn it off. If you came here from outer space, you would think that they invented the stock market and everyone else (neutrals/delta hedgers/gamma traders/bears/vol traders/CTAs) are all there just there for their amusement (just buy long calls dummies wtf?...this isn't that hard...). Look if you have been trading long and made money, great. Just like when trading short and making money, great. Act like you are supposed to be here for god's sake. Sorry for the rant...


VIX and VXX winners of the day by dodging the entire onslught of Hunger Games hologram murder bots to finish flat...closed w/ VIX +1.20% and VXX -1.51%

  • UUP smash and grab from futures traders sparking a global stock rally -0.74%

  • TLT keeps holding onto the support like Stallone in Cliffhanger movie -1.34%

  • SPY bulls on parade early but slipped on a Trump/China banana at 230PM closed +1.23%

  • QQQ was the weakest link and finished ugly -0.27%

  • IWM was anaconda squeezed early and poo poo'd into the close +2.88%

  • SMH was green but couldn't beat the orange line and closed +0.86%

  • FAANGs RED

  • HYG +0.75% rangebound again back into the box going nowhere fast

  • XLF anaconda SQUEEEEZZZEEE today +5.20%

The consensus is that the re-opening of America was a success! It was so successful that there was no need to wait for the market to open - the weekend pajama team had already priced it in for you so we opened up 3-5% higher across the board at 930AM. Price discovery at it's finest and you can thank the crew from the zoom chat this weekend for that one (thanks to the Manuch and J-Rome). Closed no where near those levels though...hmmm.


Absolute Breadth didn't relent, VIX held firm (and count me in as shocked on that one) and closed flat, and there was hard selling in Biotech (they are done with the Reebok pumps over there so time to dumpppppppp some shares on the muppets).


Where do we go from here? We are kind of in no man's land now. VIX at 30. Stocks at all time highs (or within a stone's throw of them), bankruptcies everywhere starting to surface, and a whole new crew of day traders just killlin' it, homebuilders up 85% off the lows when 10-15% of existing homeowners are at the end of the forbearance period waiting to start foreclosure...lots of paradoxes everywhere that are truly wonky and super distracting.


Nothing that I am seeing has me inclined to deviate from our game plan of being long $USD, short sideshow equities in the low 3000's level and long the 20 yr. We will see how this works out for us in June. On with the days details below!

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Biotech puking down 5% high to low and they are joined by Precious Metals. The poster children the first to vomit. Will Homebuilders vomit soon? IDK but they deserve the same fate.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Bonds are red. Countries are greeeeeeeennnnn - something to do with the USD smash and grab today???? Answer is yes.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: More countries green and more currencies green. Take these three charts and now flip them. That is what is going to happen when the USD$ explodes in the FEDs hands.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish/Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative/Neutral


VIX/VXX Summary: VIX longs after today...

A green close for the VIX as bulls were throwing shade and partying all day at the bar-b-q at Lake Ozarks (they just stayed there at that pool b/c wtf not?!...trading is too easy) but they forgot to turn off the natural gas on the stove. Now all bears need is a spark and they can burn the house down. VIX/VXX finished strong and count me as one of the surprised parties in that camp. I thought for sure they would go for the throat on VIX. All these side show equity rallies and they have not killed the VIX. I think they are going to regret this at some point.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: Bearish across the board.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Bullish across the board.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: We are here. Arrived at the moment of truth next two days.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Ditto NYSE AD.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: MONITOR. Not relenting. So now somebody is lying here.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Still has room on momentum to get to rare air...


INTERNALS Summary: We are at the moment of truth - the next few days are telling for intermediate term.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

SPY Summary:

Bulls today. They had Rodman get the other team's best player kicked out (overnight futures ramp over the Holiday weekend) and then MJ was shooting over the tired Blazers (bears) all day just taking their souls and mocking them on NBC. They should be good and dead now and Bulls are going home to watch the rest of the Last Dance.


All jokes aside, we will see what the rest of the week brings as we are now in clear air (no FVGs and/or road blocks) and decisions have to be made medium term.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Neutral

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

QQQ Summary: QQQ closed red. Yeah that's what I said Ron.

Ugly day for FAANGs and QQQ. This is not stopping the call buying though. They jumped in early and really did not stop today. GEX could flip in the next 48 hours on them. That might hurt. $215 level is the level to watch.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

SMH Summary: Cannot break that orange line. Weak index here at the highs.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

DIA Summary: Dow Jones is back and according to Davey Day Trader (Fourtnoy from Barstool) it's un-American to not support airlines. Big weekend gap up in futures that filled all the gaps in the chart today. This looks neutral to me now across the board as to what happens next...lots of folks expecting a full recovery this summer for industrials.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

IWM Summary: Ha. FVG upside fill of 4% at the open...overnight holiday pajama crew saying F-U yet again. Now we are at the moment of truth area I mentioned this weekend. We shall see what the rest of the week brings.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

XLF Summary: Got to the first marker...what does it have in the tank to carry forward? The setup is there for it to run to 28 if it wants to...did I just say that?! I did...I am not sure that happens but technically it could so just throwing it out there.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Back in the box. Going nowhere fast.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral/Negative

TLT Summary: Still looking for a bottom and will just oscillate as long as we have the equities side show going on.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Heavy Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Stick up kids showed up today in DX/$USD. Down 1% overnight running lots of stops (including ours) forcing people to either get back in (we did) or be flushed out. This has all the fingerprints of flush out before a turn. SUKs blow everyone out and then turn it...that is what I expect here. Momentum, velocity, money flow, and blocks were unshaken by this action today meaning...stick up kids showed up to shake the tree.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Picking up steam to the downside now and GEX looks like $155 level is up next before next major decisions.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Really trying to hang on for one more high...will it get there???

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Really picking up steam now. Looking at the GEX $32 and $30 are up next in that order. Momentum lots of room to the downside. Buyers still trying though...

THE END.


Oh...

Keep your eyes open this week as...


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