5/27/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

QUICK SUMMARY:


Bulls at the close in their own nirvana devoid of any rational awareness to their surroundings:

Bears at the close just trying to get the f out before the 'buyside can't lose' naked call buying bulls blew them to pieces:



VIX and VXX were not winners today as they shit the bed and let the bulls work them intraday after being up solidly...closed w/ VIX -1.39% and VXX -2.0%

  • UUP unch and holding onto the bottom end of the range -0.04%

  • TLT unch pretty much -0.18%

  • SPY bulls (FED) making anyone but naked long call buyers look stupid +1.49%

  • QQQ was the weakest link but still rallied to green +0.55%

  • IWM is Conor McGregor right now just handling it in the first 3 min of the day +3.11%

  • SMH was red but nothing like 3% intraday rally to close +1.51%

  • FAANGs mixed bag across the board

  • HYG +0.21% rangebound again back into the box going nowhere fast

  • XLF anaconda SQUEEEEZZZEEE today continuted +4.34% so now up 10% in 2 days like a pot stock

For anyone new who just started following, I have a thesis that the market operates in only 2 regimes now:


Regime A: Equity Nirvana - this is when we are in a postive Gamma feedback loop that squeezes shorts in overnight ramp and camp action. This is induced by FED liquidity (or a combination of fiscal policy and FED liquidity). We have both now to the tune of $10 trillion. So we are seeing an EPIC equity nirvana cycle. This moves from Sector (cough ETF proxy gambling vehicles) to Sector until all of the squeezing is done. There are no fundamentals involved in this because they are 100% irrelevant because everything moves on trading structures alone going from squeeze to squeeze to squeeze to squeeze until there is no buyers left (this usually coincides with the Fed feeling like they 'accomplished price stability' or some bullshit comment like that. They hint at no more liquidity and it turns over...much like gravity and then it inverts on the bulls...


Regime B: Doom Loop starts - this is when all these buyers that were buying on low volume are blown out in short order by large institutional sell orders that triggers put buying which ignites the VIX which blows out the VIX shorts (they swap places with bears) and they buy more VIX to cover and then dealers have to move their gamma positions which exacerbates volatility even more and shit gets out of hand and you get 200 point a day ranges in the SPX and everything that was left behind (FVGs on the way up) get filled in like 3 weeks or less. This ends only when the FED/Treasury step in and throw enough money at the dealers and institutions to get them to stop from burning the economic ecosystem to the ground and turn their machines off...oh and something something concern for Pensions and 401ks or some bullshit like that and 'Main Street' something something.


We are currently in a Regime A (equity nirvana cycle) and I believe we are towards the latter end of this particular cycle because of the velocity of the move and are soon headed for another round of Regime B.


That is the general high level commentary for today. Below is more sarcasm, quantitative analysis, technicals, and yammering from me by section:

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Was red all the way earlier but you know those once in a lifetime buying opportunities and all - can't miss them - CTRL+Buy. All green close except for oil.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Bonds are all green too. Except the 20yr ... no one wants that ewww.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: Some, well most, countries green as the $USD is still meh.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative


VIX/VXX Summary: VIX longs after today's action when they could just taste glory to have it ripped from their souls...

VIX and VXX are still constructive even though I am mocking them a little here. Low side of the range is being tested but the internal measurements are increasing over the zero line on VXX. I am not of the belief that we are there yet, but, we could be seeing a shift to the regime in progress. Too early to know right now.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: Bearish across the board except for DIA.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Bullish across the board.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Blown. Out. No more divergence to worry about lol.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Ditto NYSE AD.


Bears when those two setups got nuked today:

ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: MONITOR. Still not relenting which is really making me think that somebody is REALLY lying here.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Still has room on momentum to get to rare air...just saying. But we are starting to get stupid with all this so beware.


INTERNALS Summary: Negative divergence out of the picture. Now it is just a matter of who is lying or not AB or the rest of the readings because VIX still looks like it is concerned. Too be determined and would not be surprised if this carried into June.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

SPY Summary:

Bulls are Steph (cough cough I mean the FED) today. Just making fools out of anyone bearish (the Wizards).


This is getting comical. We are at the 306 level now and 312 is our internal 'go-neutral' level so we will keep monitoring this as the week closes and the month closes. I am still in the 'suspect' camp on all this until 312 goes. If that goes, bears fumbled completely.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

QQQ Summary: QQQ closed green after being down about 3% intra-day. So don't talk about the FAANGs like you talk about that IWM rubbish. FAANGs said:

We are definitely at the top end of the range for the FAANGS/QQQ but we can always go higher so you never know the exact spot during a blow off type move at the apex of the equity nirvana cycle regime (like we are currently experiencing).

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Neutral

SMH Summary: Cannot break that orange line. But maybe it tries tomorrow? Lots of neutral readings. Seems even big players are a little befuddled here.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Neutral

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

DIA Summary:

Dow Jones is back over the resistance and nothing between it and the MSL now. With the great reopening and the Hertz bankruptcy behind us (Phew!) we are nothing but green shoots ahead now.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish MAXED

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

IWM Summary: Momentum to value rotation crowd be like:


Ha. 4% upside yesterday? Hold my beer. How about 3.5% today AND I will spot you a -4.5% move from the open that I will retrace. Balance sheets and financials? Value? Ha bullshit. This is not about value and book or any of that shit. This is 100% about what hasn't been squeezed yet on the GEX programs - that is it. Full Stop. The only thing left was Banks and Small Caps after the last 45 days and now they are getting their squeeze rocks off.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: Banks last week talking about solvency and write offs and mortgage forbearances and loan loss reserves and 70% of CBRE commercial tenants not paying rent right now and that matters?

Go to the second marker on the Gamma squeeze. $26 on deck? WTF not! Buyside/Sellside positioning is all that matters in the equity nirvana and doom loop cycles. Right now we are equity nirvana regime with $10 trillion of inputs so F'it lets go for $28 and really make'em squirm.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Back in the box. Going nowhere fast. Nothing has changed.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral/Negative

TLT Summary: Still looking for a bottom...still looking...still looking...still looking.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Heavy Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Dollar longs like me right now are starting to sweat...

Cannot get up and out of the range and the bottom of the box keeps getting tested. Something has to give. The readings are still showing massive accumulation now but will there be a flush out first? No way to know. Regardless we hold our positions with stops.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Short term a little washed out. Bounce could be in the works but should not be done to the downside overall until $150 level is tested at minimum.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Definitely wants to take a shot at 17.31.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Looking at the GEX $32 (hit it today and bounced) so that leaves the $30 up next in that order. It will bounce around before it heads to $30 I suspect.

THE END.


Oh... and all the narratives I am hearing about why this and so and so that about the 'bullish case' - shove it. There is no bullish case and there has not been in a long while just like there is no bearish case. We just flip from equity nirvana to doom loops now - that is it. Here is what is happening:


$10 trillion in 45 days INJECTED leads to GEX squeeze-o-ramas from sector (cough gambling vehicle ETF proxies) to sector (cough other gambling vehicle ETF proxies) until there are no buyers left to squeeze THEN...another doom loop (via GEX and VIX going the other direction) will show up and everyone will go (this came out of nowhere blah blah blah) and how can we make it stop (blah blah blah) and Markets in Turmoil and then the dynamic duo will be called on live TV again by Cramer to print more (cough go to their 'tool kit'). Rinse and repeat.


So here is your bull case and bear case wrapped into one sentence:


Nothing matters but the FED's 'attempt' at a centrally planned economy until it doesn't.


...oh and J-Rome and the Manuch (the dynamic duo) were caught on camera today leaving work:


Sign Up for Exclusive Trading Tips, Tools and More

DISCLAIMER: This site and all prepared documents are for information and illustrative purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding a course of action, including without limitation as those terms are used in any applicable law or regulation. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein (i) voliswell.com is not acting in a fiduciary or advisory capacity under any contract with you, or any applicable law or regulation, (ii) that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith, as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment and your specific circumstances and objectives, (iii) that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action and evaluating investment risks independently. voliswell.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide tax, accounting, actuarial, record keeping, legal, broker/dealer or any related services. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas and the material presented herein. You may not rely on the material contained herein. voliswell.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. No part of this website or it’s documentation may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the written permission of voliswell.com except for your internal use. This material is being provided to you at no cost.

© 2020 VOLisWELL