5/7/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

Updated: May 8

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the market.

QUICK SUMMARY:


Whatever It Takes:


  • Volatility down again overnight and tried to recover and then got targeted last 60 minutes of the day - VIX -7.85% and VXX -5.28%

  • UUP got rejected at the resistance yet again -0.29%

  • TLT looks to have put in a local bottom +1.36%

  • AND THEN ON THE 8TH DAY, JEROME SAID THE REST OF THE SECURITIES WILL BE GREEN. The end.


Another overnight ramp job in futures that spilled over to the intra-day session that started with Fed speakers reiterating that they will do 'Whatever It Takes' - this was released similar time frame this AM as the the next 3.5 millions listed as unemployed as of the end of last week was announced. Now 1/5 of all US citizens unemployed and that should easily be 2/5 within 30 days based on what I am seeing.


That said - tomorrow we get the announcement of the aggregate 20 million US citizens jobs lost in the non-farm payrolls report. The non-farm has always been a farce as it is revised down the next month every single time (look it up - such a joke)...so I highly doubt this one makes a difference in market prices. Price right now is front running more liquidity or something to that effect it appears. Is this a mistake or is this the right call? Time will tell..


Based on everything below it looks like everyone is eager to buy harder overnight again and then tomorrow during the intra-day session. Have to see how it shakes out but nothing says buy like terrible 'anything economy' numbers that mean MOAR of FED alphabet liquidity mixed drinks.

SECTORS:

Sector Takeways: All green. Nat Gas and VIX the losers.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative


VIX/VXX Summary: Looks like the are going to try to finish the VIX off tomorrow. Bulls need this to die and get below 30 and then 25. We are now back to that conversation again. Prefer to refrain from other comments until the weekend.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: Net neutral across the board. Everyone waiting for tomorrow I guess?


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Decent advancing but nothing to write home about.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Meh candle and momentum is trying to turn up. Maybe if the report an extra 5 million losses tomorrow we can break the MSL to the upside.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Ok cumulative vol reading but momentum still bearish at the moment.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: MONITOR. Closed flat - will this be the bulls kryptonite? Or will they kill this back to neutral once again.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: So so reading here too. Momentum reset - definitely ready for the 5% rally tomorrow on the worst being behind us in job losses.


INTERNALS Summary: Neutral at best, neutral at worst. Until tomorrow.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral/Bearish


SPY Summary: Green overnight. Green during the day. GEX positive. More tomorrow.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Irrational Call Buying


QQQ Summary: The gift that keeps on giving. Is this topping out or is this taking back the MSL for a new Bull Market? Nothing says 'merica better than ATH tech stocks and infinitely long bread lines.

SOXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative


SOXX Summary: MONITOR. Approaching the underside of the resistance area. Will it matter this time? Have to wait and see.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral/Bullish (or about to bust)


DIA Summary: Dow Jones range bound for 30 days. Break of the range will bring expansion.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral/Bearish


IWM Summary: Hard to tell here. GEX implies that over 130 with umph and could hit 140+. Will that happen? IDK. But nothing says 'merica more than small craps rallying 10% more as they cut more even more millions of jobs in May and begin to default on their debts in mass.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative


XLF Summary: Banks stuck in between. Range expansion above 22.30 could get to 24. Do they rally on terrible jobs too tomorrow?

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: HEAVY Negative


HYG Summary: Nothing notable here in HYG....

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive


TLT Summary: Looks like TLT setting a local bottom. Need to see if there is follow through tomorrow.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Heavy Positive

GEX: Positive


UUP Summary: Jammed into the resistance today and failed again. Will there be another attempt tomorrow or will this head lower to FVG fill (smaller time frames)?

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive


GLD Summary: Rally today led by Silver. If there is legs, we have seen the bottom of this sideways consolidation. If not, silver will fail and this is a head fake.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive


SLV Summary: Silver trying to break out of the range bound action? Range expansion coming to the upside? Let's see what happens tomorrow. I am not a believer of this until it breaks through 15.50 once and for all on absolutely mega volume and a Ginsu blade.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive


GDX Summary: Yet another high. Not done yet it seems. 35 area is FVG resistance going back a few years. Through there 40 should happen quickly. Let's see what happens.

THE END.


Sign Up for Exclusive Trading Tips, Tools and More

DISCLAIMER: This site and all prepared documents are for information and illustrative purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding a course of action, including without limitation as those terms are used in any applicable law or regulation. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein (i) voliswell.com is not acting in a fiduciary or advisory capacity under any contract with you, or any applicable law or regulation, (ii) that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith, as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment and your specific circumstances and objectives, (iii) that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action and evaluating investment risks independently. voliswell.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide tax, accounting, actuarial, record keeping, legal, broker/dealer or any related services. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas and the material presented herein. You may not rely on the material contained herein. voliswell.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. No part of this website or it’s documentation may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the written permission of voliswell.com except for your internal use. This material is being provided to you at no cost.

© 2020 VOLisWELL