6/1/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Robots/OTFs/Pensions are buying the dip until they aren't.

When could this flip regimes: $2965 SPX is the primary (larger GEX flip) and $2990 is the warning shot.


I will post this above every day as a macro update. This helps you know where the big line in the sand is since so many charts are now neutral market structure levels meaning that they can go either way from here.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX were strong in the face of green index price action all day and they closed up but still with work to do w/ VIX +2.62% and VXX +0.88%

  • UUP mauled all day again and in trouble -0.56%

  • TLT is still no one's choice at the moment and closed -0.80%

  • SPY bulls on low volume rise +0.40%

  • QQQ same +0.30%

  • IWM pretty green all day until last hour +0.96%

  • SMH was red and couldn't get anything going and closed -0.15%

  • FAANGs all green

  • HYG +0.36% rangebound again..rangebound again...rangebound again...

  • XLF was strong on the day +1.15%


Horrible weekend in America. I will not address it further here as that is not the right forum other than stating I support the peaceful protestors in every way and I am appauled and disgusted by the murdering and destruction. The former is the way shown to us by Ghandi and MLK. The latter has never worked in the history of mankind and won't work here.


Having said all that, markets are not geopolitical or domestic barometers. They are price discovery machines looking at the maximum return on invested cash. I was not as suprised as many were that the market was not down today. There seems to be a great deal at play here and it all needs to resolve itself before sides are taken in the market with that invested cash and even though it looks disasterous outside - markets are still in the 'US is cleanest dirty shirt camp' at the moment.


The market participants appear to want to see how this shakes out based on the positioning - no one wanted to blink today to the downside and they let the small lot buyers leak price upwards. I am not sure the rest of the week will be this way but there is positive price regime in place until 2990 and then ultimately 2965 are taken out. VIX is very strong at the moment relatively but the dollar has weakened massively in the last 72 trading hours. Their are mixed messages across many views so we remain patient and aren't getting one sided here with so many things being neutral. That is my recommendation until something changes.

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Mostly green.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Bonds are red but weak dollar made global markets rally

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: Other currencies and other markets were green because of the dollar weakness.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish (x-over)

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish (x-over)

Internals: Neutral/Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative


VIX/VXX Summary: VIX and VXX are pretty resilient here and I expect decisions to show themselves this week for the intermediate time frame. GEX is a little different at the close showing a more supported structure. I think that something is definitely up here with all this VIX strength but we won't know what that is until tomorrow/Wednesday probably.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 3 bulls/1 bears = bullish @ close


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Bullish today except for the close of QQQ (weak).


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Bounce back today from Thur/Friday's failure last week. Still below the resistance.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Volume mixed - think it was indecisive until the last hour and then wham! it was sell side that took over. Momentum could still meander tomorrow but it's exhausted up here.


THE DJT: at 645Pm tonight he issed quasi-marshall law.


Takeaway: Unknown. I am unsure what this means or how it will affect the markets. We are in uncharted territory in so many ways, I believe that this is truly tbd the next few days/week.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: MONITOR. Relentlessly volatile yet the market has been nothing but leaking upwards. Something is going to shake this tree, I am just not sure when/where it will be but this reading is just carrying on too long now to be ignored.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: No strength today - this implies today's price action was weak/false advance.


INTERNALS Summary: Today is muddy. Tomorrow hopefully we get some tradeable action. Be careful here...the unknown unknowns from all the existential factors can be recalibrated into the buy/sell programs at a moments notice in times like these. Be cautious.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

SPY Summary: Hit 306 at the peak today again. After hours looking kind of weak. Unsure if this manifests into a local area of topping or not. If it does, watch the 299 level and 296 level. If it doesn't then 312 is next up. Know your levels here and GEX was positive into close so bias is still buy side.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Put Buying a little excessive

QQQ Summary: QQQ at the top end of the range. Either we are going to break ATH (and head much higher technically) or we are going to pull back/correct/worse up here. Binary now.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

SMH Summary: Cannot break that orange line. Can. Not. Break. The. Orange. Line. At the moment of truth now. Tomorrow is rather important action for intermediate term.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

DIA Summary: Dow Jones with no one left to squeeze and is completely neutral. Above is 264 and below is 237. Going to have to decide at some point which way it's headed.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

IWM Summary: This has massive resistance at 147-150. Through that sky is wide open to ATH. Below it all the FVGs are listed. Totally neutral position which is so rare to see. Late day weakness may have been a tell but lately there has been zero edge here so I remain new neutral until more price action is revealed.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

XLF Summary: Banks bounced today but the GEX flipped back to negative. Late day was very weak. Deposits into banks are through the ceiling based on a few macro economic data points saw today (which makes sense with people not spending). Only concern is those deposits are fractional dollars on trillions in derivatives that could be already blowing up based on counterparty defaults in motion...time will tell. Bearish below $24.50 until it isn't.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Back in the top end of the box. Flight to safety today it seems. Curious to see how this shakes out because it looks more and more like Gov. Backed Corporate Bonds so they are what 'fancy munis now'? Feels like it they are public utilities.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral/Negative

TLT Summary: Nobody wanted TLT today but the GEX is still sitting near a flip. Momentum is lower end and can flip at any time. Not surprised today to see limited action here - participants wanting to see things shake out from Gov. response to the issues at hand.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Full Reset

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Market Structure going to get? Looking for between here and 1-1.5% lower for potential price bottom (IF it is to be seen as we believe). Other MSL test coming.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: So bullish. Nothing else to say.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: We are here at 17.31 so let's see what price action does now. Moment of truth.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Momo flipped up again. Going to take a shot at 40? If SLV bursts through $17.31 then $40 test is definitely coming here.

THE END.


Be safe out there. I don't know any of you but this is a dangerous time on every level of life. Wish everyone peace, safety, and good vibes.



Sign Up for Exclusive Trading Tips, Tools and More

DISCLAIMER: This site and all prepared documents are for information and illustrative purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding a course of action, including without limitation as those terms are used in any applicable law or regulation. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein (i) voliswell.com is not acting in a fiduciary or advisory capacity under any contract with you, or any applicable law or regulation, (ii) that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith, as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment and your specific circumstances and objectives, (iii) that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action and evaluating investment risks independently. voliswell.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide tax, accounting, actuarial, record keeping, legal, broker/dealer or any related services. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas and the material presented herein. You may not rely on the material contained herein. voliswell.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. No part of this website or it’s documentation may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the written permission of voliswell.com except for your internal use. This material is being provided to you at no cost.

© 2020 VOLisWELL