6/16/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


LIMBO

What this means: We are in limbo at the moment. We flipped from doom to nirvana overnight and then bulls got murdered by Powell testimony and we flipped to doom and then flipped back to nirvana by PM close...too many flips for us to track - we are in LIMBO....


When could this flip regimes: $3180 SPX is the primary (larger GEX flip as of Tuesday close at 415PM) and $3150 is the warning shot. Below to drop to doom - 3100 is warning and 3085 is dooooommm....


Another lovely overnight ramp fest of supposed $trillion dollar stimulus plans for building something or other here in the US (that will never get built rather just stolen by gov approved contractors that don't have to be disclosed) that tripped algos which bought more futures and then they ramp all night. But the real gnarly part that was added to scorch bears souls was another soon to be debunked half-wit COVID therapeutic that keeps 1/35 people in the ICU from dying but then is denied ever for working because of an intern's log error...but that got the indexes up 4-5% each at the open so MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.


Do they really think we believe this shit anymore??...what a joke they are making of themselves...at least try and disguise it. I was shaking my head at the open and then shorted XLF because they brought the ATM to me yet again before Powell's testimony - thanks clowns.


TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX consolidating today with... VIX -2.12% and VXX -2.25%

  • UUP was purchased today +0.30%

  • TLT was sold today -1.53%

  • SPY gap up overnight in futures + COVID cure blah blah blah announced 8am and then nothing intraday but distribution +1.92%

  • QQQ gap up overnight in futures + COVID cure blah blah blah announced 8am and then nothing intraday but distribution +1.72%

  • IWM gap up overnight in futures + COVID cure blah blah blah announced 8am and then nothing intraday but distribution +2.40%

  • SMH gap up overnight in futures + COVID cure blah blah blah announced 8am and then nothing intraday but distribution +1.56%

  • FAANGs all GREEN

  • HYG +0.41% got an erroneous boost at 2PM but still below the pink line

  • XLF gap up overnight in futures + COVID cure blah blah blah announced 8am and then nothing intraday but distribution +1.57%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


J-Powellpatine to all the short sellers he ran over last night trying to turn them to the dark side by close and always playing some triple speak mind games...


The Manuch takes a different tactic - he just announces random death star size stimulus at odd hours of the night to trip ES algo buying for his accounts in the Caymans and then says some snarky remark about the v-shaped recovery prospects in the US like...


Ok so where are we today based on the weekend game plan:

  • COVID19 cases - INCREASING to the point where Miami said pause on the 'great re-opening'

  • US/China relations - 20 Indian soldiers dead today after firefight at the border with China and China's statement was they 'didn't die because they we shot them, they died b/c they didn't first aid fast enough' ...true story you just can't make this shit up..and NKorea moved into the DMZ this evening (our time)...so move along all is well over there.

  • $USD - Green

  • Bonds (TLT) - Red

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Red

  • GEX levels on a pull back/correction (IF one materializes) - Flipped Green


From the weekend expectations for OPEX week we are 4/5 thus far:


1. Range Expansions both directions - check

2. GEX flips multiple times - accomplished this today so check

3. OPEX induced short squeeze from last week to kill bears - check (killed them overnight last night lol...again)

4. OPEX induced rally (off said short squeeze to get bulls to roll calls or even better buy fresh ones further OTM) - check this morning it happened as posted on twitter in real time

5. Close the week lower than where we start for maximum pain on both sides - unknown


Let's see where we go from here. Should start getting much more interesting tomorrow with VIX rolling and us tagging 317.77 today in the AM session for SPY but technically we haven't tagged the FVGs at 318+ so we should still go get those upside levels. Watch the price levels for each chart as that is the most important thing this week moving forward.

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Nothing to see here....move along. Just press BUY...


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Gov bonds? Nobody wants those...give us some Europe.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: Actually just give us anything b/c of FED liquidity.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Systematic Buying

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain


VIX/VXX Summary:


VIX/VXX sitting on the bench at the moment...will it be a long bench (through end of the week) or just a few plays?

VIX rolls tomorrow...showing further accumulation today...have to wait to see if it amounts to anything in the latter part of the week.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: All bearish ...even broke DIA. But price action not catching up with that.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Bulls for the win


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Filling the gap and trying to turn momentum


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Going for a new high?


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Still well below the last high but moving up again


THE DJT: "I got myself a trillion dollar stimulation for some transit packaging that Larry and Stevie is going to announce tonight Mulaniaa...pretty impressive huh - it's the best transit package ever. Better than any package ever transited I mean transported. The greatest."


Takeaway: Empire strikes back..."take this $1 trillion stimulus announcement at 1030PM on a Monday (because that's totally when you announce that for sure) you bear fucks...how you like that..."


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Pulling back a little


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Back almost to sell zone again...sigh.


INTERNALS Summary: Bulls still have the ball here early in the week and genuinely they believe that ...

Ok. You got it.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Call Buying Excess

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: Bulls to bears yesterday thinking they were done with them yet...

Tagged just shy of 318 level FVG fill...still think we swing wildly again tomorrow...have to fill all these areas and OPEX still not done yet.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Bullish

Put/Call Ratio: Call Buying Again

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: Nasdaq be like...

QQQ volatility still high but back to mostly bullish setup again now and FVG still not filled above so going higher.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SMH Summary: Back to the highs but still didn't fill the FVG gap. Should fill it this week/tomorrow?

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure


DIA Summary: Still looking for 270 to fill to the upside. Vol still very hot.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Scorching vol here still and filled the first upside FVG...will it go for another one tomorrow...that is the $150 level one...tbd

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

XLF Summary: Just a few minutes because...

...but the ATM keeps working. If you could gap this back to $26 again tomorrow I would appreciate it. (Quick 5% easy money drop today during Powell's speech...totally normal stuff here...GTFO)

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain

HYG Summary: In Jerome we trust. But he can't beat the pink downtrend line...no one can. Nothing new to add. But yet every time I bring this up to one of those experts of the industry they say...

To which I respond..."break the pink decade long downtrend and then we will talk"


TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain

TLT Summary: Filling lower gaps and bouncing ... probably keep doing that until Friday is done. Back and forth...

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

UUP Summary: Expected consolidation all week and back and forth with max pain at $26. Think this stays in and around this area until large lots are done with OPEX related distributions.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

GLD Summary: Still looks off to me...GDX looking really weak here.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SLV Summary: Bounce today makes no sense to me...internals are collapsing...odd action.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

GDX Summary: Same boat as Gold...this gets bought hard every mention of the FED buying something else, but there is no break out and follow through...running out of time to bust $34 and head to $40. Needs to get on it or risk heading to $30 or lower.

THE END

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