6/17/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


LIMBO

What this means: We are in limbo at the moment. No change today.


When could this flip regimes: $3180 SPX is the primary (larger GEX flip as of Wednesday close at 415PM) and $3155 is the warning shot. Below to drop to doom - 3110 is warning and 3090 is dooooommm....


(currently we are on the lower end of that Limbo range as of close BUT two days left in juke box for OPEX week)


We are getting very mixed action here as expected. Techs and semis are holding up to the top end of the range, but small craps and banks are leaking lower again. Most internals chart by chart are very neutral (indecisive) but broad market internals look more bearish than indecisive.


Couple quick stats I saw today RE quad witch OPEX...


  • 1.8t of $SPX options expiring on Friday making it the THIRD-largest non-December expiration on record - in additional to 230bn of SPY options & 250bn of options on SPX and SPX e-mini futures.

  • Net $76BN OF EQUITIES TO SELL. This is one of the largest ever

These are huge stats that are impacting things all week in a very dramatic way. Trying to decipher the ins and outs each day at the moment in a limbo environment with these kinds of order flows sitting out there is futile and patience is the order of the day.


Realistically, tomorrow and Friday could be extremely fluid with this type of size to be unwound and/or restructured and where that positioning is post OPEX is even more fluid as there is a crowded narrative for runaway inflation (from the Empire's liquidity cannon) and less crowded (maybe?) gravity induced deflation narrative (from debt bombs that are sure to go off in July/Aug/Sept)...


We won't have any insight into what the positioning is for either of these two potential directions until post OPEX - regardless of what my opinion of which one is more probabilistic than the other at this point.


TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX no one is moving today... VIX -0.59% and VXX +0.30%

  • UUP was purchased today +0.08%

  • TLT was purchased today +0.41%

  • SPY going no where day -0.42%

  • QQQ filled the FVG today left from last Thursday +0.32%

  • IWM leaking lower and closed -1.81%

  • SMH filled the FVG and dropped immediately +1.06%

  • FAANGs mixed bag 2 down/3 up

  • HYG -0.47% no buyers to be found today

  • XLF struggling but could rebound up to hit max pain higher -1.51%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


J-Powellpatine again appealing to the shorts again...just buy the inflation narrative...my puts are better than any other's puts before me...


Darth Manuch again..so much less refined than J-Powellpatine just comes out and says it so much harsher to the bears (maybe that is what they need to hear to get everyone long for inflation blow off of epic proportion)...


Ok so where are we today based on the weekend game plan:

  • COVID19 cases - INCREASING to the point that we are seeing states just get out of hand again and remember - this is the FED and Treasury's Kryptonite

  • US/China relations - China was flexing attack helicopters today in videos online (nothing to see here all is well over there...move along).

  • $USD - Green

  • Bonds (TLT) - Green

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Unch

  • GEX levels on a pull back/correction (IF one materializes) - Green (slightly)


From the weekend expectations for OPEX week we are 4/5 thus far:


1. Range Expansions both directions - check

2. GEX flips multiple times - accomplished this today so check

3. OPEX induced short squeeze from last week to kill bears - check (killed them overnight last night lol...again)

4. OPEX induced rally (off said short squeeze to get bulls to roll calls or even better buy fresh ones further OTM) - check this morning it happened as posted on twitter in real time

5. Close the week lower than where we start for maximum pain on both sides - unknown


Tomorrow may be massive range expansions and into Friday AM...but you got this...don't over trade and remember:

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Too much red here today...leading or lagging indicator?


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Gov bonds were in desire today - old man 20 yr getting the swipe right

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: Mixed for the rest - pretty prevalent theme here today

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Systematic Buying

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain


VIX/VXX Summary:


VIX rolled today and reset. Across the board VIX term structures increased in the latter months but we won't really know until OPEX clears where the positioning will be on a more permanent basis ... so we wait.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: Pretty bullish...sans SPY


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Bearish except for QQQ


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Stalling in the middle


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Rejected from the resistance line cleanly...worth noting.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Selling all day today ...


THE DJT: Nothing today from the big guy.


Takeaway: I suspect the Kush has been tasked with monitoring the family account through OPEX as well...


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: High level consolidation


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Back to neutral...shows you no one has an edge here..


INTERNALS Summary: Bulls stepped aside today...bears didn't step up today...everyone waits for the top to stop spinning (IF) to see what level of this reality they are really in:

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Neutral

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: Again...tagged just shy of 318 level FVG fill and missed it...still think we swing wildly again tomorrow...have to fill all these areas and OPEX still not done yet.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Bullish

Put/Call Ratio: Call Buying Again

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: Same exact setup as yesterday where QQQ volatility still high but back to mostly bullish setup again now and FVG still not filled above so still has higher if it wants it.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SMH Summary: Filled the FVG...higher or lower is best guess but this is very heavy here again but showing signs of accumulation which is odd. We won't know until OPEX clears.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Neutral

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure


DIA Summary: Still looking for 270 to fill to the upside. Vol still very hot. Same as yesterday...

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Scorching vol here still and leaked lower today. Looks really bad but OPEX can muck things up so I remain agnostic.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

XLF Summary: Is it time to really pull out the axe and short these banks?

We will know soon enough...

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain

HYG Summary: No change here and stuck at the top end of the range...very little room between the upside resistance and a total downside mess...


TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain

TLT Summary: Same as yesterday...still bouncing ... probably keep doing that until Friday is done. Back and forth...

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

UUP Summary: Seems like we are going to pin this somewhere around 26 this week before more clarity next week.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

GLD Summary: Still looks off to me...GDX looking really weak here. Same story as yesterday. Even it goes to 169 will it be a fake break? Total conjecture at this point.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SLV Summary: Candles show selling on the highs each day so far...remember max pain is $15 for Friday...that would be dirty.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

GDX Summary: Same boat as Gold...inflation narrative suggests a bust $34 and head to $40. Needs to get on it or risk heading to $30 or lower in short term.

THE END

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