6/22/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


LIMBO

What this means: We are in limbo still bouncing between regimes...


When could this flip regimes: $3110-3140 SPX is the primary flip upwards to more bullish posture (larger GEX flip as of Monday close at 415PM) and $3090-3080 would kick off a new doom....

TODAY'S ACTION:


Drive by shooting in VIX for sure...VXX not so bad as they closed... VIX -9.54% and VXX -4.88%

  • UUP was sold today -0.53%

  • TLT was unch +0.01%

  • SPY futures overnight ramp, camp, and nothing intra-day so close +0.64%

  • QQQ futures overnight ramp, camp, and nothing intra-day so close +1.02%

  • IWM futures overnight ramp, camp, and nothing intra-day so close +1.00%

  • SMH futures overnight ramp, camp, and nothing intra-day so close +0.92%

  • FAANGs all green

  • HYG -0.07% pinned

  • XLF garbage again -1.13%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


J-Rome (presenting the Yield sign) and The Manuch (holding the camera) practicing their yield curve control (YCC) presser coming to a FED zoom conference call soon...



Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - Getting really bad in FL, CA, TX, and AZ. AZ noted today that 84% of their ICU beds are at capacity with greater than 80% of them filled with COVID patients.

  • US/China relations - ESCALATING DAILY. US put 4 Chinese media conglomerates on notice today. With what I know RE these 4 entities, this is not a small wrist slap. This is shot across the bow.

  • $USD - Red

  • Bonds (TLT) - Green

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Red

  • GEX levels on a pull back/correction (IF one materializes) - Red


Sorry not ultra full of jokes here this evening (hate to disappoint - just tired this evening)...


The primary takeaway that I have from today is we are in a gorpy upside drift action with no follow through to the downside from Friday's late day sell off overnight last night or today in RTH. That leaves the upside FVGs $318 area on SPY as a magnet. With VIX going south today and short term realized vol coming way down in QQQ, IWM, and DIA today (no other time frame did come down)...we can easily just upward drift to the magnets or higher and enter a thoughtless gorpy buy side drift through quarter end. Keep that in mind.


Having said that, the GEX's across the board are repositioning (take a look at all of them today in detail as they are much different than Friday close) and there could easily be a point of inflection across the board very soon (inflation/deflation catalyst) up ahead...be open to both possibilities at this time - b/c the charts across the board (especially the weekly views I posted on twitter last night) support that point of inflection dead ahead.


All of the charts and details are below per usual.


SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Mixed bag in equities. Miners and biotech hot bid with tech. Risk-on trades take the day.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Gov bonds long term in demand as are munis...then throw in some other countries.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: When the dollar is red the other countries are green...the end.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Systematic Buying

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain


VIX/VXX Summary:


VIX was victim of drive by shooting today - still alive but in monitoring status at the hospital. But GEX flipped positive here? Kind of odd action in the VOL space today and worth watching this week. We are clearly in another gorpy low volume period again that will go nowhere but leaking upwards until it collapses.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 3 bulls and a bear. Buyers still taking price higher (bidding it up even on low volume).


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: 3 bears and a bull.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Stalled out and struggling to move anywhere.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: No change...negative setup.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: No change...still negative setup.


THE DJT: After a terrible showing in Tulsa ... Trump come's back hot today going to work for us the voters!...


Takeaway: $1 trillion more in stimulus coming to everyone's mailbox (according to the reports out of the White House today). Nice timing. He will probably send a personalized letter with the check so we all know who is helping us these days............


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: High level consolidation again but momentum rolled over. Keep in mind we are in volatility levels and very close to extreme volatility ... one spark and this could explode.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: This is very strange situation here...pinning it to zero line is very abnormal.


INTERNALS Summary:

This guy just says it all doesn't he...


INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Call Buying

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: This is what people think the SPY is right now...


This has some structural changes. Block selling today. GEX negative. Internals negative. Gorpy price action up again. VIX short term and long term remain elevated. Month end is in close proximity so we wait...

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Bullish

Put/Call Ratio: Call Buying Excess

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: If SPY is the wad of cash...this is the QQQ right now...

I said last week it was 'Eerily quiet in the market... but still room higher short short term if it wants it." That is what we are getting. Short term volatility collapsing but long term doing nothing but staying elevated. Price continues higher (3% low to high today from overnight session) unabated right now.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SMH Summary: This seems sooo heavy up here. But no dice on price change. Range bound it is for today.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure


DIA Summary: Short term vol dropped, but blocks went hard sell side and internals dropped. Sitting below major volume resistance at the moment, so we go nowhere fast. GEX flipped negative, but minor. This has to get over the volume profile to range expand upwards. Otherwise, heading lower.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Everything about this is negative but short term volatility dropped hard today and is normalized. The quarter end could have impacts on this right now in the very short term. It is compressed and in a tight range area, so either direction that we go from here should beget range expansion. Its predominantly negative looking here, so range expansion should be lower...but we all know the forces at work here to keep things 'normalized'.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Negative

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

XLF Summary: This is trapped between the VWAP and the Bull Bear Pivot. Volume is pretty large below. Momentum, GEX, and internals all point down. Pretty compression point here is developing. If we go lower, it will drop like the ship in the GIF. If it doesn't go lower, then this can shift gears based on the volume profile below it. Next few days are pretty key to intermediate term. Longer we stay here with deteriorating internals, more likely it sinks.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain

HYG Summary: This GEX restructured today, internals are dropping, blocks are sell side, and momentum in the bearish camp. Major volume resistance above. Either going nowhere or going down.


TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain

TLT Summary: Block volume came in today and also the GEX restructured. This should be a monitor the next few days to see what transpires.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

UUP Summary: Zooming out to the weekly there is nothing bearish here. The bulk of the volume is below the price and so is VPOC. The pivot is way below. Momentum on the weekly is quite reset with potential for multi-week (month) run up. This is going to be interesting this summer.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish Max

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

GLD Summary: What's not to be bullish about here? I am not bearish...just seems like everyone on the planet is bullish gold now with the YCC conversation today across the board. Is it that easy? Could be. Nothing makes me bearish except that it is getting pretty frothy and GEX became odd today.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SLV Summary: What a start...what a finish to the day. Totally gave back most of the gains from the overnight and daily sessions. Not ultra positive price action imo. Internals give this nothing to make me ultra bullish either. I am neutral this until 17.31 can break on heavy volume. Then I am not neutral and believe me I posted the Weekly on twitter last night for this and it looks incredibly bullish once 17.31 level and really ultra bullish when 18-19 volume resistance levels are blown out.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

GDX Summary: Bullish action today for price, but momentum is going to be a the max area before price gets to the FVG (or right at the FVG left to the upside). GEX positioning changed today as well. Think this is worth watching the reaction at the FVG before you set the fireworks off just yet. Silver couldn't hold its gains today which isn't positive.

THE END

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