6/23/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Buy the dip and sell the rip until it breaks (no matter how insane the world around you is)...


When could this flip regimes: $3095 as of the close on Tuesday 415PM (noted on the $SPY GEX chart).

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX are starting to get grouchy... VIX -1.26% and VXX -1.82%

  • UUP was sold today -0.34%

  • TLT was sold today -0.68%

  • SPY futures overnight ramp... gave it up in PM session +0.46%

  • QQQ futures overnight ramp... gave it up in PM session +0.85%

  • IWM futures overnight ramp... gave it up in PM session +0.42%

  • SMH futures overnight ramp... gave it up in PM session +0.33%

  • FAANGs all green except for NFLX

  • HYG +0.14% going nowhere

  • XLF up big early gave it all back +0.46%


THE ENTIRE FED STAFF AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


They all would like to let you know that there is no recession, the data is better than expected, they will definitely never ever raise rates again, in fact they don't even think about thinking about raising rates, the economy is 100% fine, but COVID19 could resurface and cause them to take more action, but the first pass of COVID19 was way overestimated and came in much better than expected but they are still concerned but they aren't but they are, just remember that they provide liquidity for and to all a good night...oh and ignore those bankruptcies starting to show up now...they will just buy the businesses...all of them.


"MMT...its for me...whacka whacka whacka...MMT its for me....everybody sing it with us now!! MMT...its for ...."



Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - California broke single day record. Texas will run out of ICU beds in less than 11 days. AZ worse. FL worse. Now other states picking up steam and the EU is now requiring visas to travel to Europe for US citizens. Nothing to see here. Move along.

  • US/China relations - Trade Deal is Over. But it isn't but it is...but that is not what Navarro meant. We appear extremely weak here...and disorganized and desperate.

  • $USD - Red

  • Bonds (TLT) - Red

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Red

  • GEX levels on a pull back/correction (IF one materializes) - Green


The COVID issue is getting out of hand as we projected - check. Then there is this RE bankrupcty filings (check) - that we projected from the weekend special edition:

This is most since 2009 FYI and we are just getting warmed up...this is NOTHING yet...you haven't seen NOTHING YET...there are hospital systems folding now all across the country. J-Rome and The Manuch are going to have to warm that press UP here in the summer to eyewatering levels...


Market currently is gorpy upside drift/going nowhere fast mode. Short term vol (9 day) spiked today afternoon session and most of the term structure elevated as well. Will this mean anything? Unknown and too soon to know. The end of the month lingers and behind that a summer of discontent...will it be solved by inflation (runaway scorching inflation) or a debt-pocalpyse...choose your fighter. The market thinks the former is a given now.


We will see...all the usuals are below and are friends from Sesame Street are going to help us navigate the charts and analysis tonight...enjoy


SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Nothing really red except energy...nature's flatulence really bad day...


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Gov bonds are gross ewww..countries yeasssss...$USD must be red?

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: When the dollar is red the other countries are green...the end. Day 4297 of that statement.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Systematic Buying

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain


VIX/VXX Summary:

VIX and VXX are moving into the trash can with oscar right now. That is how they feel...


Looks like there is some strategic accumulation of VXX going on as today had the largest buy influx since the spike higher couple weeks ago...hmmm...short term vol sky rocketed in the pm session...hmmmm...Oscar there is hope...but need to see more components of the puzzle come together in order to get bullish at this point (volume velocity over zero, money over zero, and momentum turning up)...so VIX/VXX stays grouchy for now.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 3 bulls and a bear. Bullish.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: 3 bears and a bull.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Stalled out still


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Large up early and garbage in the PM...no change.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: No change...still negative setup.


THE DJT: Trump is going from building stimulus fund, to road stimulus fund, to now floating the vacation fund...I am going to take my last stab at buying me some votes bitchesssss!!!!.


Takeaway: .........serious the vacation fund was floated today - $4000 per person but you have to travel, stay in a hotel, and visit restaurants in order to be able to receive a forgiveness for the stimulus (cough) loan...oh and $500 per child so $9000 for a family of 2 plus 2 kids...GTFO. Should mix perfectly with our new COVID wave everywhere...


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Seems to be washing out. Definitely worth monitoring latter part of the week.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Back to neutral and momentum reset...definitely can head higher.


INTERNALS Summary:

The FED Count says "None of your counts matter!...whahahahahah. That is about where we are here at this point in time lol...


INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: Elmo is the SPY right now...and the FED is the hands...


SPY crapped after the AM session and 9 day vol started to elevate quickly. GEX is negative but just barely and really has to get sub 309 to be meaningful. Will there be any follow through to this? Not if the hands have anything to do with it...but all jokes aside, looks like VIX is still in the grouch can so hard to see this collapsing here without some more gorp.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Bullish

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: Doing the bid bird shuffle...

Nothing to see here...just printing new ATHs and doing the big bird shuffle. Change today was 9 day vol is spiking and all the dates are spiking so this could be more meaningful to us if there is a follow through to the downside. We are very extended up here, but nothing saying we can't just gorp higher either...we wait for more clues.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SMH Summary:

Semiconductors buyers are just gobbling up them cookies...price appreciation monsters...right now. Nothing meaningful to say that this is ready to roll and give cookie monster an upset stomach.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Put Buying

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure


DIA Summary:

Portnoy bought cruise line today that went up 75% intraday. Kermit shared my thoughts perfectly on this. DIA still in limbo at the moment. If we don't move from this area trapped in between here on the chart then we are looking for bankruptcies and/or earnings surprises in July before moves are made...we wait.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: IWM and DIA just driving down the road with no license...

Short term and 30 day vol spiking ... worth noting as a major change day over day. But there is no letting go of this at the moment price wise. We will have to remain patient (for both bull or bear perspective)

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Negative

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

XLF Summary: Same exact thoughts from yesterday. This is trapped between the VWAP and the Bull Bear Pivot. Volume is pretty large below. Momentum, GEX, and internals all point down. Pretty compression point here is developing. If we go lower, it will drop like the ship in the GIF. If it doesn't go lower, then this can shift gears based on the volume profile below it. Next week or so is pretty key to intermediate term. Longer we stay here with deteriorating internals, more likely it sinks.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain

HYG Summary: This is just stuck in limbo ... July should get super interesting on the bankruptcy front for this index...grab some popcorn.


TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish x-over

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain

TLT Summary: Struggled today...may pull back in the next few days again to fill some lower FVGs.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

UUP Summary: Heading lower again today and gaining no traction...this remains lower end of the range for now but bigger/long term picture still very bullish.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish Max

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

GLD Summary: Raging bullish at the moment...fervor is pumping. Don't short this at the moment...longs let it ride.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SLV Summary: Another decent day and approaching the moment of truth at 17.32 again...

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

GDX Summary: Bullish action should find out what time it is at the 36.35 level above. Through there going to 40. Through there...look out.

THE END

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