6/24/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


DOOM LOOP

What this means: Dealers will buy the rip and sell the dip. Volatility will exacerbate. Range expansion is prevalent. Great for trading and bad for investing.


When could this flip regimes: $3120 as of the close on Wednesday 415PM (noted on the $SPY GEX chart).


We are 2% lower than the GEX flip so this is a firm flip. So this is sell into the rip environment below 3150-3180 imo. The only caveat is massive intervention moment (YCC is still lingering out there)...just be aware. If no intervention (massive YCC required) this is in going lower.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX are starting to get grouchy and started today getting even... VIX +7.87% and VXX +6.59%

  • UUP was bought today +0.46%

  • TLT was bought today +1.07%

  • SPY was sold today -2.55%

  • QQQ was sold today -2.06%

  • IWM was sold today -3.24%

  • SMH was sold today -2.10%

  • FAANGs all red

  • HYG -1.02% going nowhere

  • XLF up big early gave it all back -3.53%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


J-Rome caught with RH leveraged call buyers and 3x long derivative buyers. Good luck guys.


Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - Epic disaster in lack of taking this serious. Endemic now and beginning to get scary.

  • US/China relations - Trade Deal is Over. War is out there in the fog.

  • $USD - Green

  • Bonds (TLT) - Green

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Green

  • GEX levels on a pull back/correction (IF one materializes) - Red


The COVID issue - global cases as of today (this is what is 'counted'):


Here is the link to Johns Hopkins REF the data above: https://myemail.constantcontact.com/COVID-19-Updates---June-24.html?soid=1107826135286&aid=YODhhBKWJWw


I am going to be shortening this nightly posts. Just struggling to find the time. The commentary will be more quick, poignant, and pragmatic, but the images and charts etc. will remain plush. Everything is below as usual minus Max Pain...that is going to be only on the weekends here forward (lack of time). You all will be able to get it via the app for any security here in a week or so anyways.


After today we are in a doom loop and unless we get back over 3150-3180 I am not going to change that classification. VXX is being accumulated on large volume here and has been for 3 straight days and the index charts are collapsing as are the internals. All the back and forth has run out of time. We are at the inflection. Fed institutes YCC/QE here or we are headed lower. Banks, Small Caps, and Dow Jones are already flashing red...just look at the charts...especially IWM...


*Only caveat is a month end window dressing rally...but that still should remain below 3150-3180.

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Crime scene in equities. Probably get way worse over coming weeks.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Gov bonds back in favor huh? Punk asses.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: When the dollar is green there is a crime scene...

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Systematic Buying

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary:


VIX and VXX seem to be positioning for something...massive block volume last three days and internals are finally positive for the first time in a long time. I am a dip buyer.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 3 bulls and a bear. Again.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: 3 bears and a bull.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Oh man - better bounce here.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Fail.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Epic fail. This is the stone pony pattern.


THE DJT: discontinuing this indicator...just getting to stupid to even track. Not giving it anymore attention.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Washed out and walah.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Just collapsing. Could bounce but looks like a short.


INTERNALS Summary:


Ugly as fuck.


INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: Bearish. Unless this gets back over 3180 - its a short.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: WTF a red day. Bounces are a short. This looks like a real topping candle structure.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral

SMH Summary: Semiconductors due a breather. Seem to have started it. If any bounce next day or two - short.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Put Buying

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: This is in deep trouble. Trailing banks and small caps. If it loses the pivot and VWAP above, watch out below.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Big trouble here. Everything on the meter reader above says watch out. Lost the daily pivot, VWAP, internals ugly, negative GEX. Probably means it bounces a little tomorrow. Short.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Negative

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

XLF Summary: Momentum almost worn out and down big from top, could bounce but this mf is toast. Look for first FVG below for a bounce of any meaningful nature. Short that if it happens.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Moment of truth now.


TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

TLT Summary: Bullish action today, but GEX still negative (last piece). Could be headed much higher if it chews through that volume node right above here.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Very bullish action today. Could cool off tomorrow but I suspect more follow through upside dead ahead.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Due a pull back, the longer it is fought the worse the correction will be.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Failure today. Ugly day. This has to turn around here on headed lower.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Dangerous failure today. Watch next 2-3 days. GEX is looking much more like a flip could be shaping up. If this drops it will drop hard. If not, then up to $40.

THE END

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