6/25/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


DOOM LOOP

What this means: Dealers will buy the rip and sell the dip. Volatility will exacerbate. Range expansion is prevalent. Great for trading and bad for investing.


When could this technically flip regimes: $3110 as of the close on Thursday 415PM (noted on the $SPY GEX chart).


No change today. So this is sell into the rip environment below 3150-3180 imo. The only caveat is massive intervention moment (YCC is still lingering out there)...just be aware. If no intervention (massive YCC required) this is in going lower in July.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX get back in your hole... VIX -4.79% and VXX -3.62%

  • UUP was bought today +0.15%

  • TLT was bought today +0.29%

  • SPY was bought today +1.07%

  • QQQ was bought today +0.95%

  • IWM was bought today +1.51%

  • SMH was bought today +0.68%

  • FAANGs all green

  • HYG +0.04% going nowhere

  • XLF squeeze +2.65%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


J-Rome caught with his precious banks today. "Guys - let's just totally let you do whatever...fuck this Volcker nonsense. Invest in VCs...invest in PCs...invest in LPs...invest in PEs...invest in fleas if you want. There are no more rules anyways, who are we kidding?! Look at us, we are buying totally bankrupt high yield companies when by every measure of the law it clearly says that what we are doing is illegal!"

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - Texas and Florida not reopening. Reclosing?

  • US/China relations - Trade Deal is Over. War is out there in the fog.

  • $USD - Green

  • Bonds (TLT) - Green

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Elevating

  • GEX levels - Red


I thought we were buying the grand re-opening?! Now we are going to be told that we need to buy the grand re-closing?! Why? Because this is why...


There is no re-opening there never was. There is no trade deal. There never was. There is no COVID cure. There never will be - its endemic now and mutated. There is no liquidity in the banks. There never was. If you think there were any of these things this is what the narrative machine thinks of you...


So we focus on the only thing that matters at this point in time. Choose your fighter in the summer. Inflation? Or Deflation? I don't care what you pick but you will need to bring your weapon and pick one. Then one will be right and one will be wrong. It will be important because if you bring the wrong weapon or pick the wrong one or think this is the wrong fight then this happens:


Anyways, back to today. Watch the chop between here and next week as there is a window washing man sighting today:


He can lift the markets up to 3150-3180 but it won't make a difference as you can tell with the elevated VOLS (check out 90 day today below OH MY its elevating) and GEXs remained negative. We are in a doom loop (check range expansion today and overnight for verification) and unless we get back over 3150-3180 I am not going to change that classification. VXX still accumulated into weakness today as well. I am through with the squiggles here...not trading them anymore.


Time for the big game. Inflation vs. Deflation.

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Window man is in town through Tuesday. Buy one get one free stonks.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Nothing to see here...move along.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: Greenfields in the world...kinda $USD meh

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Systematic Buying

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary:


Get back in your box where you belong lol...I am greedy b/c I want VXX to hit both lower FVGs - maybe I get my wish between here and Tuesday. I will start with the first one tomorrow if it can happen.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 3 bulls and a bear. Again...3rd straight day...constant bid under market but just holding it in place...no expansion.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: 3 bears and a bull...again stocks being sold.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: There is the stick save - rally thru Tuesday?


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: AND...it was saved...for now.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Still in the stone pony pattern.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Trapped in the middle during the reset.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Due to bounce - right in time for the window man.


INTERNALS Summary:


Still ugly but can bounce short term...if they want to.


INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: No change. Bearish intermediate term. Unless this gets back over 3180 - its a short. Look for both upside FVGs to get hit between now and next week. Gifts if they do.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: VOLs starting to elevate. Unfinished business left upside needs to get nabbed. Big picture turning more bearish after month end clears into July.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

SMH Summary: Semiconductors bounced but internals worse. If any bounce next day or two continues - short.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Put Buying

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: Excessive put buying may force this higher to fill the upside FVGs left behind last week before lower. But VOLS are rising - look at 3 month perk up - big picture bearish.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Up to 145 area would be awesome. Short.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

XLF Summary: Momentum wore out and we get a bounce (changing some rule for banks to be able to invest in VCs now b/c that is exactly what they need to be able to do is what news is saying...). I want a little higher and then I pull out the torpedos for the ship...if I really could request a squeeze back up to $26 level...would just be amazing. I know that is a lot to ask.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: July shall decide the fate of the bonds.


TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Last piece came through today with a positive GEX. Now we just need to get up and through the volume profile and rally time is on.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Internals working their way back up and momentum carrying. Still a ways to go before we are in rally mode. Stealth rally happening right now - maybe there is some rotation from gains to dollars here under the surface?

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Due a pull back, the longer it is fought the worse the correction will be. Nothing changes from yesterday. More this is fought the more likely the corrective drop is scary AF and positions will be puked out.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Tried to recover from yesterday but still below high. Still under the VPOC an under 17.31. No change. Looking for pull back in July.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: As long as below $36 this is heading to $26 in July. Over $36 going to $40. GEX looks more fragile today. Once slip and this is shot.

THE END

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