6/26/20: MARKET CLOSE & WEEKEND Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.


PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


DOOM LOOP

What this means: Institutions/Dealers are buying the dip AND selling the rip until they aren't. Don't fight them until it breaks regime. This will create YUUGE intra-day swings and expanded/exacerbated volatility.


When could this flip regimes: $3095 SPX is the primary (larger GEX flip as of Friday close at 415PM) and $3075 is the warning shot. (**I am still holding the 3150-3180 level as a must take back level for bulls before we are in a nirvana cycle again**)


FRIDAY's ACTION:


VIX and VXX are coiling but nothing explosive yet - trapped in the R-Kelly closet below 40... VIX +7.79% and VXX +5.96%


  • UUP closed up a little +0.15%

  • TLT setting a new bullish trend in place this past week +1.07%

  • SPY hammered by FAANGs -2.38%

  • QQQ hammered by FAANGs -2.36%

  • IWM bad but could have been worse -2.69%

  • DIA teetering on disaster -2.74%

  • SMH no FAANGS so not that bad considering -1.87%

  • FAANGs RED - Zuck lost $7 billion Friday (bet he bought some puts though...lol)

  • HYG -0.95% don't throw up now ...

  • XLF just the worst...bank robbers are so bad the Fed said no more dividends -4.28%


ECCLES BLDG housing the newly established 'FEDSURY' ZOOM CAM:


J-Rome had turned off the brrrrrr printer last week or so. Look for a 'pivot' to that or talks of 'more tools' etc. in the next week...he is already preparing his speech I bet...

The Manuch getting ready to launch the summer fiscal 'vacation fund' stimulus liquidity for his daddy DJT:

Our six main things to keep watching for:

  1. COVID19 cases - Total disaster areas now in FL, TX, CA, and AZ

  2. US/China relations - Getting more chippy by the day

  3. $USD - bullish

  4. Long bonds - bid

  5. VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - term structure is up across the board

  6. GEX levels - doom loop for now (just slightly)


My twitter feed this weekend is doom porn. Makes me a little cautious of the wheels falling completely off imminently... more on that in a second...but I think that Friday was really a showcase of how much weight the FAANGs carry across the indexation and how heavy they are relative to the rest stocks. QQQ had big drag, but SMH did not. One has FAANGs one does not. FAANGs were disasters and drug relatively stable indexes (SPY and QQQ) way down. Equal weight QQQE doesn't look as bad as QQQ for example on Friday.

IWM was middle of the road bad but SPY and XRT (FAANGs exposure) were ugly. The internals are meh (not vomiting and momentum on them is close to turn areas). The VIX didn't explode Friday, just steady increasing...getting wound up but not blowing the roof off.


Another line of caution on imminent melt down following up from above...when you look at XLF and DIA and IWM they have led down but are at some major first downside drop support areas (and close to filling some downside FVGs). Are we just going to collapse here? Always possible as we are in a doom loop. BUT the upside FVGs are too numerous left behind last week or two (across the board) and they are too close to price for me to view them as breakaway gaps. They should be filled before we really shit our pants in July (it is coming...don't get it twisted here...just seems like we left some crumbs behind).


The momentum on the small trash, bank robbers, and dow jones incapacitated indexes are all getting cooked to the downside in the short term so they could bounce this week into July 4th weekend maybe? Could see that but totally conjecture. Nothing says 'merica like a grand re-closing, Ron DeSantis yelling profanities at reporters, and small trash/bank robber/dow jones incapacitated rally in Independence Day! A short seller can only dream...


Volatility is getting quite wound up, as is the dollar. But no explosive upside move out of the ceiling area yet for either. Monday and Tuesday should be interesting. If we get an explosive VOLs move and we break down the indexes past the support areas then this is crash ready and in motion. If we get relative strength in the small trash bunch then maybe we bounce first before the shit show starts...regardless FAANGs still have catching up to do to the downside...so could be wonky choppy downside action...which will frustrate eager bears and make it harder to be more patient. This is the war zone area and I would not be surprised with liquidity and fiscal hints this coming week and/or actions as the 'Fedsury' knows how important these levels are which could even further muddy this area up.


Regardless, bounce or no bounce. Until 3180+ is taken back = use the charts and the FVGs and the momentum readings to SELL THE RRRRRIPS.

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Precious metals shining through all the FAANGM blood.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Gov bonds are like mistresses of the market right now...they only get some love when the FED wife takes away the credit card.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: Other countries red too...$USD meh

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain


VIX/VXX Summary: VIX and VXX keep coiling upwards toward the $40 area ceiling right now...soon as they are through that level markets should get one of these...

Watch the $38-40 level for VXX. That is the clearance level. Once that goes - straight shot to $46 as last line in the sand..

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 3 bulls 1 bear.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Meh.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Momentum is about to be reset and the must hold level is approaching. Either we get a bounce or a barf.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Momentum is about bottom out and there is major support below. Will it hold?


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Momentum is going to be at the bottom Monday or Tuesday. Either it holds support or collapses.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: This has been trapped in rangebound activity last week.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Very burnt out - could easily bounce next week ... or could remain embedded.


INTERNALS Summary: This guy has it right about the MUST HOLD areas coming up in the indicators above...should they not hold...

With the majority of the readings looking like they are approaching momentum downside exhaustion it makes sense to account for a bounce in the analysis (although it would just be to clean up left behind gaps and then continue to the dumpster later in July). But these are inflection areas that MUST HOLD. So, we wait to see the reaction. If that 200 DMA goes probably going to be lights out for the market.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bearish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: SPY bulls trying to hold on last week...before they get shipped off to Rikers with Will for some prison love...

$294 level showing FVG before the $285 level major support. VPOC is now above price (big picture bearish). GEX really negative. In a doom loop. Just short the rips below 315-318. Vol is just the missing piece to a bear raid. Friday was just a FAANG raid, so I am suspect major collapse just yet as the rest of the index is holding up...let's see what happens Monday and Tuesday. I would like to go back up to 311 to fill that FVG sooner than later personally.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: There was still call buying on Friday morning (WTF?)...these call buyers be like...

90 day VOL rose this week which is interesting. Same thoughts as last week still remain in tact as $225 and even $215 could be seen very easily and that would just test the bull bear pivot and the VPOC and VWAP levels. That's between 10-15% lower from here. If that comes to fruition (high probability)...then we take it from there. Should that $215 level go (which has been VPOC) for a while, then we have a bear...if it doesn't go, then this can keep going higher in the intermediate term.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SMH Summary: Semiconductor analysts answer to the down day Friday...

Based on the charts, we should see a test of the 131-135 area at some point soon. This is about 10-15% lower. If we take that out, then new bear leg in motion. If we don't take that out, then VPOC and bull bear pivot hold, we will head higher. Let's see what shakes out.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Neutral

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure


DIA Summary: Who is holding the hoola-hoop? Bulls or bears?...tbd

There is an FVG right above and right below. Which one gets filled first? Idk. But I think in the next week or so both get filled before we head much lower this summer...which we will. VPOC is above price - index is bearish overall.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bearish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure


IWM Summary: Small cap CEOs talking to the board before earnings start in July...

This is at VWAP support and in the congestion area of EMA support. FVG way lower and FVG right above pretty close. Momentum pretty spent but can always embed...have to wait to see what Monday/Tuesday look like. Regardless of this weeks action with the Window Washing man potentially showing up or Mr. Fourth of July to rescue, this is what the CEOs are doing so you should do the same...RUNNNNNNNN DAVE!


Short.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain


XLF Summary: Summed up perfectly at a meeting of Bank CEOs...


Banks are in such bad shape their daddy had to cut off their pocket picking publicly...no more anything, not even dividends. It must be TERRIBLE under the surface. Lots of FVGs right above left behind last week (sooo frustrating) so I expect a short squeeze soon to fill them. At that time, I will be getting a cannon from one of the old Florida forts and firing all the put contracts available I can before these all go to zero.


Short.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain


HYG Summary: Scene from the meeting inside the Eccles this week when COVID cases starting going bananas in Texas, California, and Florida, and Arizona...worst at risk CLOs are all held by HYG and HYG is now held by the FED now soooooooo you know what that means.................


Short.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain


TLT Summary: Bullish action in place but momentum is maxed out so I suspect that we get to fill some of these left behind FVGs. Buy the dip environment now for 20 yr.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral (sitting at the pivot)

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain


UUP Summary: The dollar is getting back into the mix as it is approaching the core resistance areas. I think that first attempt through the resistance areas and the volume profile will fail, but it should consolidate up here in this area and then chew through it eventually. Debt-pocalypse coming this summer will ignite a hunger for dollars unlike anything ever seen before imo - you know where I stand. I'm bullish $USD and have not changed that stance in 45 days.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

GLD Summary: The bulls keep buying. That won't change as long as the stimulus conversation continues unabated...or margin calls show up. Former won't stop so bullish. Margin calls coming this summer so heads up on that. Ol' Marge is a ruthless BIIIIATTCHHHH.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish (neutral more like it)

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SLV Summary: VPOC and bulk of the volume profile is above price but mixed bag on the internals. The never ending saga here with SLV. Will it ever get through 17.31...

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

GDX Summary: Easy analysis. Below $36 going to be heading to $26. Above $36 going to $40. Above $40...see ya.

THE END.



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