6/29/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


WINDOW WASHING

What this means: Prices are pinned for statements and national holidays. Window man can regularly be seen around Christmas, Thanksgiving, Easter, and at Quarter End. He is usually cranky and disrespectful of bears.


When could this technically flip regimes: Technically we are in a equity bullish GEX as of close (slightly). However 3170 is really the level that turns this into equity nirvana. Until that happens, this is a chop zone that one should do best to let shake out this week.


By following the rules, we acknowledge that the GEX is positive. However, the FVGs for SPY are sitting at 311 and 317 respectively. The 317+ level in particular is where I personally will allow for a shift from Doom Loop to Equity Nirvana. Until then I am viewing this Window Washing Man appearance to be nothing more than the Christmas in July to put on bazooka shorts early next week-ish (assuming the readings are in favor of such).

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX you're fired... VIX -8.49% and VXX -4.85%

  • UUP was kinda bought today +0.04%

  • TLT was not bought today -0.31%

  • SPY was bought today +1.47%

  • QQQ was bought today +1.09%

  • IWM was really bought today +3.27%

  • SMH was bought today +1.02%

  • FAANGs all green except for AMZN

  • HYG -0.57% going nowhere

  • XLF weak bounce +1.11%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


J-Rome the 'Tool' Man and his partner Al 'the Manuch' committed to pulling out their limitless 'tool' set approx. 30 min before markets closed to help the market navigate its much needed new bathroom renovation...as the shitter is currently clogged...has to be cleared out before the flush starts.

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - No we are navigating the grand reclosing.

  • US/China relations - Trade Deal is Over. War is out there in the fog.

  • $USD - Green

  • Bonds (TLT) - Red

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Meh

  • GEX levels - Green


I said this weekend that J-Rome and The Manuch would come out with some reference to new 'tools' or a 'facility' would be notated as starting up (for credit) and potentially the trifecta - the Manuch launching a new 'stimulus' ... we are batting .667 today at the plate.


Where from here? Well, the window man is here and he and his friend Mr. July 4th are currently running the show. The FVGs that were left behind are key to cleaning up price discovery short term, so getting up to them would clean up the charts which I think is very much likely this week (with patience) which is doing nothing but setting the table...


For the destruction that is currently circling above the Sr Loan CLO tranche towers ... scheduled for early to mid July... here is a preview of what is going to happen to them:


And while we are at it... there is the genuine bankruptcy mayhem to come to a city near you this summer as many co.'s are already filing for that Chapter 11 stuff as we speak:


And one must not forget that we have earnings to sift through starting after July 4th weekend...those should be amazing to witness. I can just see the reaction from the FED when earnings are just big steaming piles of shit. Probably more 'tools' and 'stimuli' and 'facilities' which equate to extra:


For this week, we consider it a gift. Hopefully it chops upside bias all week. As we have stated for a week or two now - fuck the squiggles here. We need to see who is going to be king of the castle in the next chapter.


Inflation and the outright endless price discovery winter and zombification of financial everything:

OR


Deflation and the volatility dragons visiting the financial landscape with an escalated bout of flame throwing range expansion in the summer/fall


In July, you will have to pick and one will win and one will lose. Until then enjoy the shortened holiday week and don't forget that NFP is on Thursday...

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Window man is in town through Thursday. Buy one get one free stonks.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Nothing to see here...move along.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: World is meh.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Systematic Buying

GEX: Positive

VIX/VXX Summary:


VXX really should visit $34 at minimum to clean up left behind price discovery if not $31 area. Let's see what happens.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 2 bulls and 2 bears. Push.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: All green.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Bounced where it should have.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: AND...it was saved...for now.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Trying to rally...


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Trapped in the middle turned into unfinished downside business.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Due to bounce - and it did.


INTERNALS Summary:


Short term bounce in motion as suspected, long term very bad setups are in play larger timeframes. July will be eventful either way.


INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish (x-over)

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: No change. Bearish intermediate term. Unless this gets back over 3180 - its a short. Look for both upside FVGs to get hit between now and next week. Gifts if they do.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: VOLs starting to elevate. Unfinished business left upside needs to get nabbed. Big picture turning more bearish after month end clears into July.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

SMH Summary: Zoomed out on this one to weekly view. Looks pretty finished here. Upside is limited without a total blow-off insane mania type move - which doesn't look to be in the cards.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Call Buying

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: Excessive call buying will cap this later this week. I want both red FVGs filled if it can happen. Would be ideal.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Up to 143-145 area would be awesome. Short.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

XLF Summary: Zoomed out on this one too in order to view weekly. What if...banks don't look sooo terrible in earnings next week and they bounce to $25 there on the weekly...one can only hope because no matter what this is what is coming...and higher prices would be more profitable shorts.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: July shall decide the fate of the bonds.


TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Needs to pull back all week this week imo. Lower FVGs are buys.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Internals working their way back up and momentum carrying. Still a ways to go before we are in rally mode. Stealth rally happening right now - should continue but nothing will confirm this until through $27.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Due a pull back, the longer it is fought the worse the correction will be. Nothing changes from yesterday. More this is fought the more likely the corrective drop is scary AF and positions will be puked out.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Still wanting to try and take 17.40 area. By all means show me you have it in you. I am just not seeing it right here.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: As long as below $36 this is heading to $26 in July. Over $36 going to $40. Nothing has changed.

THE END

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