6/3/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

Updated: Jun 4

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Robots/OTFs/Pensions are buying the dip until they aren't.

When could this flip regimes: $2980 SPX is the primary (larger GEX flip) and $2988 is the warning shot.


Greatest rally in shortest period of days in SPX ever. Official. News at the close. Nasdaq also at ATH. Naked call buyers at close just waiting for Friday expiration of 3150:

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX got the wrong impression that they could face the hunger bots today and they were taken behind the woodshed at 3PM today and closed materially down after being solid most of the day... VIX -4.40% and VXX -4.31%

  • UUP no bottom sir -0.61%

  • TLT just got bitch slapped to 159 and closed -1.33%

  • SPY bulls just running wild +1.33%

  • QQQ lots of hubub about this but just slightly up +0.45%

  • IWM strong early really weak late +2.41%

  • SMH took out the resistance +2.76%

  • FAANGs mostly red - but what about QQQ ATH?

  • HYG +0.47% cannot be stopppppeeddd

  • XLF just killing it with the squeeze at dinner for Dimon +3.73%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM: wait?...why are they all leaving the bar I thought party just started...

I see two options here. Either we enter a new bull market now or we are have just witnessed one of the greatest robberies in broad daylight in the history of mankind. From my GIF you can gauge what I think is about to happen. I will not fight a renewed bull market (IF) and don't have any doubt about the liquidity in the system - so I get that.


But I suspect that this GIF is what Wall St/the FED/the Senate/House personal accounts look like right now...but hey wtf do I know...

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Different day - same story. Don't worry that red is just in PMs. Trash. Oh wait...Bios too..and Tech?


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Different day same story: Gov bonds ewww. High Yield...yeasss...mooarrrr! Other countries - green with weakness in $USD.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: Different day same story: Other currencies and other markets were green because of the dollar weakness.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish (x-over)

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative


VIX/VXX Summary: VIX and VXX washing out today. Both testing the lower bound with VIX at 25 and VXX at 30. Ideally for continuation of this market advance both need to be sub 25 and even more sustainable is both at or below 20. That is the 10 year historical level of this market advance. We shall see as this is coiled pretty tightly.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 2 bulls and 2 bears with IWM trin abysmal bearish read - way too frothy there.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Bullish


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Break out or fake out?


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Back to the MSL again.


THE DJT: nothing new today...


Takeaway: Unknown. Where is he at? Not like anything is going on right now...


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: MONITOR. Collapsing down correctively. Pretty expected. If this has been front running volatility then it would/should appear next 5 days.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: We are headed toward embedded.


INTERNALS Summary: Much more clarity today. Market hit every upside marker. Now we will find out if this is a new bull or this has been a complete reflexive bounce of truly epic proportion.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Puts and Max Pain


SPY Summary: 312. Above it the puts are non existent and bulls can roam freely. Below it max pain short term is $298 for options here in June expiry. Pretty close to GEX flip level too. We will see what happens now.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

QQQ Summary: QQQ at the top end of the range. Elevated VOL structure but still plugging on to newer highs for this move. At ATH - should know more in the coming days to mid term. Things definitely now more 'bullish' intermediate term with this action.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Neutral

SMH Summary: Broke the line above. See what follow through entails to chase or fade this.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

DIA Summary: Dow Jones at the MSL. Decisions to make.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Neutral

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral


IWM Summary: This has massive resistance at 147-150 and it kicked in today. Short term VOL very elevated. 150 test next or was 147 it?

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: Bank squeezing the juice as I said they would over 24. Now can they get to 26 and if so GEX is positive so 28 in the cards?


Still not buying it. Regardless, I am not long or short banks at the moment as I don't usually trade this but it's making me interested now I have to say and not to the long side.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Say it together everyone: HY DEBT IS NOW TREASURIES. HY DEBT IS NOW TREASURIES. HY DEBT IS NOW TREASURIES. HY DEBT IS NOW....

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral/Negative

TLT Summary: Lost the 161 level and collapsed to 159. Oh the destruction. If that goes it can get to $150 area to test MSL.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Washout

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Market Structure Level is in play. WASHOUT today underneath the hood. WOW look at that red bar! I am getting more bullish. Sorry not sorry. When I saw the CNBC article pop up on my fintwit feed saying how much lower $USD can go I was frothing and reading about the 6 million white collar jobs about to be cut between here and July 15 I got even more bullish. I know..."he sounds like a broken record and even a broken clock is right two times a day" etc etc etc...just know that there will come a moment when this supernovas everything.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bearish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: What does this sector and gold know all the sudden that no one else does?

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Failed 17.31 so now heading lower. Monitor FVGs to see where this lands. Got a ways to go if things are shaking out to the downside now so take it level by level.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Momo flipped down and internals really negative and dropping. Price hammered second day in a row. Look for more downside and this phase could be drafty and heavy downside. Watch your levels.

THE END.



0 views

Sign Up for Exclusive Trading Tips, Tools and More

DISCLAIMER: This site and all prepared documents are for information and illustrative purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding a course of action, including without limitation as those terms are used in any applicable law or regulation. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein (i) voliswell.com is not acting in a fiduciary or advisory capacity under any contract with you, or any applicable law or regulation, (ii) that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith, as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment and your specific circumstances and objectives, (iii) that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action and evaluating investment risks independently. voliswell.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide tax, accounting, actuarial, record keeping, legal, broker/dealer or any related services. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas and the material presented herein. You may not rely on the material contained herein. voliswell.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. No part of this website or it’s documentation may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the written permission of voliswell.com except for your internal use. This material is being provided to you at no cost.

© 2020 VOLisWELL