6/30/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


WINDOW WASHING

What this means: Prices are pinned for statements and national holidays. Window man can regularly be seen around Christmas, Thanksgiving, Easter, and at Quarter End. He is usually cranky and disrespectful of bears.


When could this technically flip regimes: Technically we are in a equity bullish GEX as of close (slightly). However 3170 is really the level that turns this into equity nirvana. Until that happens, this is a chop zone that one should do best to let shake out this week.


By following the rules, we acknowledge that the GEX is positive. However, the FVGs for SPY are sitting at 311 (almost hit today) and 317 respectively. The 317+ level in particular is where I personally will allow for a shift from Doom Loop to Equity Nirvana. Until then I am viewing this Window Washing Man appearance to be nothing more than the Christmas in July to put on bazooka shorts early next week-ish (assuming the readings are in favor of such).

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX back to the range bound lower nether regions again... VIX -4.25% and VXX -4.85%

  • UUP was not bought today -0.15%

  • TLT was not bought today -0.49%

  • SPY was bought today +1.28%

  • QQQ was really bought today +1.96%

  • IWM was bought today +1.45%

  • SMH was really bought today +2.43%

  • FAANGs all green

  • HYG +0.91% bounced off oversold

  • XLF headed up to clean up FVGs +1.36%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


J-Rome and the Manuch singing each other to sleep tonight with the sounds of bankruptcies in the distance...they are the true 'Thunder Buddies'.

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - Welp...that escalated quickly.

  • US/China relations - Hong Kong annexation bill passed today. Keys are now in Xi's hands officially and zero news coverage. CIA should be real pleased.

  • $USD - Red

  • Bonds (TLT) - Red

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Red

  • GEX levels - Meh


The Thunder Buddies referenced each other today in speeches with the Manuch saying that he was in talks about 'new tools' with the FED currently...I am not a witch nor have a crystal ball (as some notated on my twitter feed yesterday lol)...that is just how basic this whole situation has become.


I genuinely suggest that one of you who reads this start tracking how many APPEARANCES they are making each week (if not daily). I really feel like my twitter feed is nothing but news feed announcements on what these two 'Thunder Buddies' say ALL MF'ing DAY (I would do it, but am a little time strapped at the moment)...


OH...AND they say the same thing every day. 'Tools'...'Facilities'...'Stimulus'...its like that is the trigger word at Blackrock is something like this..."when I say - "Tools" - that is when HAL starts the RUN PRGRM BUY..." This is them at the end of the day celebrating their algo trigger gambit:

Sorry I digress...


So far this week is sticking to the script. Easy part is behind us. Hard part is ahead probably. IWM for example now has a cleaned up chart - no FVGs. Price is not magnetized to one level or the other for the algos so buyers and sellers will now decide. Oh...the anticipation. SPY, DIA, XLF, QQQ etc. all still have some business to attend to next 2-3 trading days so CHOP may still be in order, but I could see the chop start to get more escalated.


Oh and Gold and Silver are right there on the verge...

Will they tip the scales to inflation vs. deflation? Oh...the anticipation.


This ENTIRE YEAR has been insane...but my suspicion is we ain't seen nothing yet...

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeaways: Window man still in town through Thursday. Buy one get one free stonks.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeaways: Gold and Silver big day today. Follow through is important for them.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeaways: World is meh...again.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary:


VXX did as requested and revisited $34 and below. Now we will see if we go down to $31.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 2 bulls and 2 bears. Push.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: All green again.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Bounced yesterday and follow through today.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Will it go for the resistance again?


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Headed back to resistance level for another shot?


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Will it go back to neutral?


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Bounce is following through. Action over neutral (IF) will be more important.


INTERNALS Summary:


Bulls have the ball at the moment here. They better not drop it before Thursday...


INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: According to every talking head this was the best quarter since 1987!

Same as yesterday. We are pretty close to FVG at 311...we should tag that (surprised we didn't get it today). So far sticking to the script for the week.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: QQQ dip buyers in April right now with quarter end statements:

Kicked back up today. Why not right?! This is worth watching, especially the volatility of it next few days as people begin to pick sides under the surface now that the slate is clean and the quarter is history now.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

SMH Summary: This is running out of steam. Internals are starting to roll over. I like this short here or a little higher if internals keep dropping below zero line.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Put Buying

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: Dow buyers channeling their inner Steve Martin with their quarter end statements vs. the QQQs...shoulda bought tech Steve and left all those planes, trains, and automobiles behind:

This is on track to fill the upside FVGs as projected. Let's see what the next couple of days brings.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral (Excessing Put Buying)

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Every CEO in a small cap stock heading into Q3....

Table is cleared now after today's moves that filled the 143 level FVG. We will see what is next for the market as this is now the cleanest this chart has looked in a while. Bulls better be careful as the algos don't have any more FVG magnets to hunt.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

XLF Summary: Looks like the bounce up to clean up FVGs is underway. Let's see what next 3-5 trading days looks like. I am sitting here in the tree...

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Makes sense that this bounced off such overdone downside momentum reading. Needs to clean up that upside FVG first...which should put us right at the start of July.


TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: No change. Needs to pull back all week this week imo. Lower FVGs are buys.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Exactly as expected. Working its way up the ladder and into the resistance...causing it to chew through which is going to take a week or so.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Not interested in a pull back...at the moment.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Still wanting to try and take 17.40 area. By all means show me you have it in you. Watch out for a fail with momentum this high if it doesn't break through on high volume. If through here on high volume...get out of the way.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Over $36 is bullish unless it doesn't clear the previous high at $37.40~...that is the level to watch for reversal. If through there, then $40 is on deck and probably won't hold.

THE END

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