6/4/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Robots/OTFs/Pensions are buying the dip until they aren't.

When could this flip regimes: $2980 SPX is the primary (larger GEX flip) and $2988 is the warning shot.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX just hanging out at the loser bar looking for someone to bum a drink off of... VIX +0.58% and VXX -1.09%

  • UUP just toilet tissue right now and closed -0.38%

  • TLT thrown out the window like a cheating husband's clothes -1.41%

  • SPY bulls looked disinterested and closed -0.15%

  • QQQ was on cloud 9 at the open then got kicked in the balls and closed weak -0.67%

  • DIA indecisive +0.16%

  • IWM was manic today +0.17%

  • SMH riding the bailout train from gov at all time highs +1.52%

  • FAANGs all RED

  • HYG -0.31% hit the wall today

  • XLF just printing money past 5 days right +2.46%


A short story.


This is the current volatility for DIA going from short term (next 9 days) out to 6 months VIX. Looks kind of elevated right?

This is the historical volatility analyzed (10 year is on right). We typically have averaged 15-20 VIX for DIA for past 10 years. Look at the last 12 months. Not so much and right now we are at +40.



Now look at current SPY, QQQ, and IWM and you find the same thing but even more insane VIX ratios.


We are not in a normalized environment. One piece of advice that I got early on in business was that it is always chess not checkers. I feel like a lot of people are looking through the lense right now that this is checkers and it's that easy (like the JETS ETF for example).


It's never checkers. With volatility this elevated, there is something that cannot be seen...as of yet.

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Mixed bag today in equities.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: All red - selling in bonds all day in every way.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: Weak dollar strong countries and other currencies.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish (x-over)

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative


VIX/VXX Summary: 30 DAY VIX and VXX look like garbage. If they don't bounce here they will be put back in the box under 30 for VXX and under 25 for VIX.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: BULLED UP


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: 2 and 2


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Break out


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Break out


THE DJT: nothing new today...


Takeaway: Unknown. He is hiding and building fences.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: MONITOR. Still volatile.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Failed at the sell.


INTERNALS Summary: Mixed bag - some breakouts and some warnings. Push.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

SPY Summary: 312. Can't get past it... now 0/2

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

QQQ Summary: Can't get past the grey line. 0/2

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Neutral

SMH Summary: Follow through there. Needs to bust the purple and home free.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

DIA Summary: Dow Jones at the MSL and excessive call buying. 0/2 getting through it.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral


IWM Summary: This has massive resistance at 147-150 and it kicked in again today. 150 is the real marker to reject or it will start to chew through for long term bull renewal.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: Banks squeezing just like I said. Give me $26.50-27 and I will short their brains out.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Say it together everyone: HY DEBT IS NOW TREASURIES. HY DEBT IS NOW TREASURIES. HY DEBT IS NOW TREASURIES. HY DEBT IS NOW....


But what happens if everyone is all in one theatre now at the same time? Does that pose any new systemic risks especially since the FED is now going to end up holding the majority of the paper? Asking for a friend...

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral/Negative

TLT Summary: No man's land.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Washout

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Still no bottom yet. Puking it out like a freshman's jello shots right now.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bearish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Reflexive bounce today.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Ditto gold.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Filled teh FVG gap. Either this is the worlds shallowest correction or this has lots more to resolve to the downside in the coming week(s).

THE END.



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