6/8/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Robots/OTFs/Pensions are buying the dip until they aren't. Don't fight it until it breaks regime.


When could this flip regimes: $3095 SPX is the primary (larger GEX flip as of Friday close at 415PM) and $3134 is the warning shot.


Rally just keeps on going ... as we suggested it would yesterday. This market today was all about Hertz it seemed based on the Fintwit feed. Market's are so frothy now is just feels like people are starting to get away with crimes...wait...didn't Hertz used to...

Dammmmmmnnnnn...sorry...not sorry.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX got to press the reset button on the Sega to restart the game... VIX +5.26% and VXX +2.23%

  • UUP still waiting on bottom with FOMC on Wednesday -0.27%

  • TLT seems to be looking for local bottom here at 152 area +0.38%

  • SPY bulls (cough pigs) just running around the barnyard +1.21%

  • QQQ new ATH...again +0.78%

  • IWM just savagely intaking all the call buyers money +1.94%

  • SMH sold off late but new ATH in the AM -0.71%

  • FAANGs aallllll GREEN except for NFLX

  • HYG +0.12% hitting the you shall not pass zone

  • XLF pullin that P-Diddy "can't stop won't stop" dance +1.91%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH (driving) AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM: just tied the shorts to the drill and ramming them into the dirt over and over and over now...

Ok so where are we today based on the weekend game plan:

  • COVID19 cases - INCREASING rapidly as noted below as of last nights data


  • US/China relations - NO NEWS

  • $USD - FLAT

  • Bonds (TLT) - UP kinda sorta

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - SHORT TERM UP/LONG TERM NO CHANGE...but short term up quite a bit in face of SPY being up

  • GEX levels on a pull back/correction (IF one materializes) - NO CHANGE

So far nothing new to signal forthcoming trend change and we can get more overbought so let it play out but do know...this is starting to get dummmmbbbbbbb. FOMC on Wednesday and there is no way to know what J-Rome will say so that markets keep functioning normally ... like the price action right now in Hertz and JETS ya know, normal.

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Green goblins everywhere. Up day.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Even gov bonds got in on this today.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: All countries green. Everything is good to go. USD still the toilet tissue of the world wiping the sh%@ stains from the Eccles building.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Systematic Selling

GEX: Negative


VIX/VXX Summary: Hitting the reset button (or at least trying to anyways it appears)

VIX and VXX short term so far following the script. Green day on a green day. This is solid start. Internals still need work and GEX is yuck so we can see how the rest of the week shakes out but good start for sure. FOMC on Wednesday so maybe it is starting to sniff out a rate surprise or hawkish commentary? tbd..

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: All bulls all day


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Bulls and bulls and bulls and bulls and bullls and bullllllls.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: This makes sense b/c lots of stocks are just chasing upwards now...should fill that gap above.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Pretty close to new ATH now.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: New ATH and the greatest move in the history of the measurement in the last 15 days.


THE DJT: Trump made his move on Friday:

Takeaway: Came in hot and running hot now MF! He is single handly building the world's greatest economy according to his twitter today...this is him fixing COVID depression...only he can save us. 'Re-Elect me or I will Vince your 401k'


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: This appears to be running to the upside with the volatilty taking price action to the upside. Implies moarrr upside could be in the works.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: We are now headed towards rare air if we keep advancing.


INTERNALS Summary: Bulls at the close today looking at the above internals:

All time record rally transpiring right now. MMT worked...for the brokerage accounts of anyone who doubled down margin limit and all into one of the worst velocity crashes ever recorded.


For the 20+ million unemployed........they are 'still working on a fix' and will be back to you later on that ...

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: Looks to test 325 probably this week. Rising VIX into green price action is now a new subject and is not what bulls want to see. What bulls really don't want to see is VIX keep rising and stocks to keep blowing off with no pull back...that could be really bad sign long term. But let's take this one day at a time. Bulls have the ball and 325 is the last pit stop before filling the gap.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: QQQ look at that call buying spike today! There was a 0.00 reading meaning at one point there were no puts in action. Surreal but short term vol is rising...price isn't stopping but it is starting to slow and tech is slowing in front of everything else. Meaningful? Not yet.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SMH Summary: Looks toppy and GEX softening up a lot today. See what this looks like tomorrow but it better hold the orange line on a pull back.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure


DIA Summary: Dow Jones same boat look at that call buying today! INSANE! This is looking more and more like a blow off of some kind from a market persepective...maybe it's just a weimar style hyperinflation shit show? MMT is an unknown unknown.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatiltiy Term Structure


IWM Summary: Hit the 150 level and just kept right on going. This market is a hot blade through butter right now. If bullish use stops trailing your gains and if bearish just know your stepping in front of a train...at the moment...time will come for these leveraged up call buyers and blind longs to get baptized though...

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: We are the ones that make the rules remember?! .... hahahahahahahaaaaa....


Please just get to $28.50 or higher...I beg you. $30 would just be the best...

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Say it together everyone: HY DEBT IS NOW TREASURIES. HY DEBT IS NOW TREASURIES. HY DEBT IS NOW TREASURIES. HY DEBT IS NOW....printing money. We are now in the throws of the pink line. Haven't broken that in 11 plus years of downtrend. Will we now? Would be highly inflationary if we do. I don't see that happening and didn't happen today.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Neutral/Negative

TLT Summary: Trying to bottom. Looks like it is holding $152. Could be a good buy but if J-Rome throw s a curve ball on Wednesday could test $148-149. That should be the local low though if low is not in already. Good long here potentially.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral (too close to MSL test)

Momentum: Fully Reset

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Market Structure Level is in play here going into FOMC. Wildcard is what Fed does. Could be the bottom or they could just blade this right thru the MSL and blow out longs but the long interest is low now compared to weeks ago (in DX futures). The risk is out there at the moment so keep your eyes open Wednesday just in case. I believe that we are seeing a intermediate term bottom forming but there is no confirmation of that right now as of yet. If I get confirmation I will post on Twitter.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bearish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: This is going to remain choppy with a downside bias for now until the GEX looks a little better and the internals improve again. Once that happens, could be set for another larger picture buy. I would like to see at least the 150 level (may be too much to ask for the 140 level but I am still hoping for it on pull back).

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Trying for another run at 17.31? FOMC on Wednesday so plausible but having said that, really looks like needs lower first. But hey, everything is green nowadays.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Gorpy downside action ... could spike bounce on FOMC but even then this should remain in consolidation for the near term unless something is way out of the box on Wednesday.

THE END.



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