6/9/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Robots/OTFs/Pensions are buying the dip until they aren't. Don't fight it until it breaks regime.


When could this flip regimes: $3090 SPX is the primary (larger GEX flip as of Friday close at 415PM) and $3125 is the warning shot.


Rally stumbled a little today and personally all this trashing of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger by Portnoy makes me quite nervous. These guys are worth billions and the guy(s) hounding them are not. I am not a Berkshire shareholder, but do have a great deal of respect for him and Munger in what they built over last 50 years. Takes time to do that and lots of knowledge - FED liquidity can void both of those but only in the short run.. We seem to be in some sort of twilight zone right now...hope Portnoy didn't anger the Market Gods today or he may end being a sacrifice on top of one of those Mayan institutional sell side sacrificial temples...you know the ones where they cut the hearts out and chop the heads off of long only explorers who wander into the wrong lands...


TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX charging on forward like Stone Cold Steve Austin... VIX +6.82% and VXX +4.86%

  • UUP still waiting on bottom with FOMC on Wednesday -0.31%

  • TLT seems to be looking for local bottom here at 152 area +1.14%

  • SPY stalled out today but should have been way worse -0.75%

  • QQQ new ATH...again +0.72%

  • IWM rolled over a little closing -1.85%

  • SMH meh +0.18%

  • FAANGs aallllll GREEN

  • HYG -0.84% hitting the big wall

  • XLF a down day? WTF is that? Closed -2.13%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM: think that these two are changing the FEDs name to Saul Goodman & Associates b/c they want us to believe its:

Ok so where are we today based on the weekend game plan:

  • COVID19 cases - INCREASING even more rapidly with individual states and cities issuing definitive warnings now

  • US/China relations - MEH. Chinese requested nationals leave India and both countries are sending more troops to the disputed border area...

  • $USD - LOWER

  • Bonds (TLT) - UP

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - UP

  • GEX levels on a pull back/correction (IF one materializes) - STILL BULLISH

We will keep updating these each day. VIX up two days in a row now into SPX and NQ strength. Backside of the term structure is increasing in VOLs today and there was massive selling under the surface today (MASSIVE). FOMC tomorrow and OPEX next week and the $USD still looking like toilet tissue so we wait...

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Lots of red...lots of selling today ahead of FOMC. Profit taking or running for the hills? Too early to know.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Rotation to bonds looks like. Countries fading...dollar about to strengthen?

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: All countries are red...see comment above.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Systematic Selling

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain


VIX/VXX Summary: VOLs coming back from the beating back stage last week with the chair wanting to throw that stunner on someone and shotgun some f&%$kin beers!

VIX and VXX keeps moving higher last two days. You can see OPEX max pain is higher than where we are...makes you wonder...need to wait until after FOMC for more commentary.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: Mixed today but distribution was apparent.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Lots of selling.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Pulled back.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Was that it?


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Looks kind of like a blow off setup...but doesn't have to be.


THE DJT: Trump staffers in their FBI interrogations..."he just wouldn't stop tweeting - we couldn't take his phone away..."

Takeaway: He should have his phone taken away...some of the things he tweets about make me do double takes...he had several of those last two days but nothing market moving.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: This just is relentless to extreme volatility. Just haven't seen any yet...something coming?


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Dropped hard today but markets not down much (if at all) ...


INTERNALS Summary: Bulls at the close today looking at the above internals:

Come on bulls don't be like Homer here...best internal readings ever last few days I am told...follow through and finish it off already. No mercy.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: Stalling but FOMC is tomorrow so could go either way. Having said that volatility rising when SPY is rising (which pretty much was until late late afternoon) is typically a bad sign short term.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain


Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: QQQ is where all the action was today. Look at the put orders I am showing and look at what they did to the PC ration intraday?! INSANE levels of puts bought today and at different strikes. Will it materialize into something? Time will tell...bulls still hold the ball at the moment.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SMH Summary: Looks soft but AMD held up the index. Max Pain way lower and below the orange line...this one is shaping up to have an interesting next two weeks.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure


DIA Summary: Dow Jones stalling too and vol really increasing quickly and across the board compared to yesterday. Gaps above and below. Tomorrow is not inconsequential.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Options Visualization: Max Pain

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Hit the 153 and got rejected. That is the top end of the VPOC (volume point of control). Was that it? Or does IWM have more in store. Short term and primary 30 day vol is really high and GEX flipped. Think max pain in store for this post FOMC potentially.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

XLF Summary: You know these American Psychos are just going to do what they want when they want how they want...shareholders about to get torched or more fun above?


Didn't make it to $27-28.50 but shots have been fired (initial) on my side...we will see what happens..

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain

HYG Summary: Max pain above...right at the pink line where none shall pass...interesting...

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Neutral/Negative

Options Visualization: Max Pain

TLT Summary: Sitting in the options balance now. Let's see what tomorrow brings with FOMC and YCC (yield curve control) bs or not with J-Rome and The Manuch.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral (too close to MSL test)

Momentum: Fully Reset

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

UUP Summary: Spike down to fill the gap tomorrow? FOMC is directly related to $USD so we will find out. I am refraining on positions again after stopping out last week until post FOMC...my thesis on dollar shortage coming into play at some point soon HAS NOT changed.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bearish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

GLD Summary: This cannot be really assessed until post-FOMC. Too much of an impact historically...could go either way here.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

SLV Summary: Max pain $15.00 next week...just keep that in mind here going into tomorrow.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Options Visualization: Max Pain

GDX Summary: Gorpy downside action ... could spike bounce tomorrow on FOMC or could gap and crap. Be cautious with currencies and PMs into the announcement.

THE END.



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