7/1/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


WINDOW WASHING

What this means: Prices are pinned for statements and national holidays. Window man can regularly be seen around Christmas, Thanksgiving, Easter, and at Quarter End. He is usually cranky and disrespectful of bears.


When could this technically flip regimes: Technically we are in a equity bullish GEX as of close (slightly). However 3170-3180 is really the level that turns this into equity nirvana. Until that happens, this is a chop zone that one should do best to let shake out this week.


By following the rules, we acknowledge that the GEX is positive. The 318+ level in particular is where I personally will allow for a shift from Doom Loop to Equity Nirvana. Until then I am viewing this Window Washing Man appearance to be nothing more than the Christmas in July to put on bazooka shorts early next week-ish (assuming the readings are in favor of such).

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX magnetized to lower FVGs...closed with VIX -5.95% and VXX -3.12%

  • UUP was not bought today -0.23%

  • TLT was not bought today -0.31%

  • SPY was bought today +0.70%

  • QQQ was bought today +1.17%

  • IWM was bought today +0.95%

  • SMH was not bought today -1.15%

  • FAANGs all green (except for AAPL)

  • HYG -0.11% weak

  • XLF weak -0.86%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


J-Rome and the Manuch taking the team to the Hamptons early to celebrate July 4th and a job well done in Q2...

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - states are actively announcing closures and more...ICUs overflowing...Buuuubbbbuuuuubbbbbuuuuutttt the FLU.

  • US/China relations - US responds to Hong Kong annexation. China cares (not). 3-d chess going on here now. This will begin to escalate post the US holiday.

  • $USD - Red

  • Bonds (TLT) - Red

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - FLAT (turned up a little today actually)

  • GEX levels - Meh


The jokes were yesterday - today we look at the rotting insides of a few ETFS as examples of why I am leaning bearish (and if we made a list there would be about 20 of them that look likes this):


XHB - look to the right...ewwwww weeee is there no volume to support this once the bull bear pivot goes...


XRT - look to the right...same view all the volume up top...kind of like playing JENGA.


XLV - look to the right at the volume profile...same story...JENGA tower...if this level where we are right here doesn't hold we are filling FVGs.


Next week I think Gus is right:

Who's eatin' that dinner!? Inflation OR deflation? Oh...the anticipation. You know what I think...

As stated yesterday...this ENTIRE YEAR has been insane...but my suspicion is we ain't seen nothing yet...make sure to expand your mind over the weekend. We will continue to see wild shake outs both ways in Q3...

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeaways: Starting to see some spotty weakness...right on cue


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeaways: No follow through for PM complex...countries green

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeaways: World is green - $USD is red

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary:


VXX cleaned up $34 FVG now lets get the $31 out of the way. Major accumulation today under the surface via some separate readings not shown here (can't give all my wizardry away for free lol) ...

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: Bulls 3 bear 1...more bs window stuff tomorrow as predicted.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: 3 bears and 1 bull.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: No follow through today...ruh roh


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: No follow through here either...


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: First resistance popped this in the mouth...weak


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Hard to see this back at neutral. Look for turn here first.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Weak at neutral.


INTERNALS Summary:


Bulls fumbled today...watch for more early exiting tomorrow in stealth like fashion.


INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral (MORE CALL BUYING AGAIN GTFO)

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: 311 FVG remedied...318 awaits. VOL increasing across the board a little. Call buying in excess early in the day...night time is ES flat or down. Regime is shifting....

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: This is getting a little silly. Good. Hope this goes up even more...just like a rocket running out of gas...gravity will be a mf on the turn.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

SMH Summary: Short here and will short higher to add if it goes up. Think it is done though.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Call Buying

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: VOLS perked up today and excessive call buying in the AM to dumb levels. Just what we want to see...start to smell the rot inside this now...

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: VOLS kicked up today and this is rudderless without an FVG higher to squeeze to...ruh roh...calling it bearish today. WEAK SAUCE action for this today. Watch out for next week.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

XLF Summary: How weak is this...cannot even get to the FVGs upside - I refuse to short here. Will wait to earnings next week tip the hand...hopefully we go up on them first and then collapse.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Weak today too? FED already on the team trip to the Hamptons?


TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Playbook so good so far. Need the FVGs to get hit to buy.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Exactly as expected. Working its way up the ladder and into the resistance...causing it to chew through which is going to take a week or so.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: This will change next week. Either correct (could be more) or explode.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Failed today. Noteworthy.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Did not take out the old high...this is not what bulls want...this is important tomorrow and early next week. Needs to get to $40 now or this could open up a can of worms...

THE END

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