7/13/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


LIMBO (still in the zone)

What this means: $3180 breached up to $3220 and then got torched back to $3150. So we are nowhere still...stuck in Limbo but its looking like today was a big potential rejection from higher prices.


When could this technically flip regimes: Nirvana over 3180 with gusto (didn't stick). Doom is now 3120 and below (seems likely). Very very tight range here...and leaning towards downside.


Serious action today - this was a notable rejection across the board. But OPEX is still in motion so pinning action cannot be discounted. Having said that, it is clear after today that sellers do not like COVID in a prolonged situation and DO NOT trust a vaccine...so SELL was the word of the day from 130PM on.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX zoo keeper let these cobras out today just biting everyone +13.59% and VXX +9.64%

  • UUP was meh today -0.15%

  • TLT was bought today +0.33%

  • SPY was sold today -0.87%

  • QQQ was sold hard today -2.10%

  • IWM was sold today -1.23%

  • SMH was sold hard today -1.44%

  • FAANGs ALL RED EVERYTHING

  • HYG was sold today -0.55%

  • XLF was bought today +0.43%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


J-Rome practicing the Main Street Un-Lending program speeches with the team since COVID is front and center again and not looking good:

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - Welp...that escalated quickly. California closed the bars, restaurants and schools. Over to you 'Ron-Ron' DeSantis here in Florida. The largest state in the country just did what was right...if you proceed with opening schools, there are no words for you...do what is right.

  • US/China relations - murmurs turned to escalation this afternoon from DJT admin.

  • $USD - Green

  • Bonds (TLT) - Green

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - FIRE

  • GEX levels - Red


RANGE EXPANSION day. The QQQ 9 day VOL is 149.16! GTFO. This is some SERIOUS moves in like 2 hours...so we have some answers finally. I said last night that I wanted to see Monday and Tuesday for short term and definitely was an interesting day wasn't it? Understatement.


OPEX still lingering for the remainder of the week, but this factor may or may not matter this time. Everyone piled it on (with the 'we are closing too' news) after California announced they were shutting the schools down for the fall. The prolonged COVID nightmare is here it appears and that is not priced in. USD still basing here at $96 and change and 20 yr bonds look bullish intermediate to long term. We have been due an equities pull back and have not gotten one for too long. Did they stretch this too far from the mean?


Fed liquidity is still the only game in town, so at what level do they announce the buying of ETFs and Mutual Funds outright? Will it matter this time? Can they overcome default cycle and another round of COVID? As mentioned last night...this COVID situation is a Life Altering Event. That is what this going to be from here on out. Prototypical Darwinism.


I don't have all the answers but today was important rejection at major upside levels for FAANGs and some other techs and semis. I will tell you that tonight coding session our devs team is putting in an auto-adjust on the VOL readings we created that allows it to range wherever it goes. Our previous cap was 100 max before we adjusted it. That will now move to 250 +/- 50 with an auto adjust if need to be higher. That speaks volumes to what today's move looked like on tick level...could have been even worse than is represented. There are lots of unknown unknown right now - so strap in.


Let's see what tomorrow brings and take it level by level.

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeaways: California threw in the towel...equities panicking


SECTORS BONDS/GOV BONDS:

Sector Takeaways: Deflation station in energy...may day. Bonds bid kinda sorta.


SECTORS BONDS/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeaways: Countries are red...


SECTORS BONDS/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeaways: Other countries are green...dollar still meh...

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary:


How about 10% move in 120 minutes? Stable? No fucking way this is stable. That is panic. Only thing that bulls have is $37.50 on VXX is hard VPOC overhead weighted volume but if that is blown through bulls are so offsides here. We are not there, so let's take it day to day but today was not a shot across the bow...but a torpedo into the side of the boat. Bulls are taking on water...better not let that $37.50 level go and plug that hole fast. They can fix this and keep moving, but the whole has to be plugged or else...$37.50 is major area for VOL.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: Bearish...except for QQQ - of course this will be bought the first drop.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: DIA seems unfinished to the upside - wouldn't be surprised with DIA tomorrow to tag FVG.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Fail.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Double fail.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Triple fail.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Ruh roh. Boom.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Quadruple fumble.


INTERNALS Summary: Ground starting to shake a little...

Oh wow...quadruple fail today...VIX let out of the dangerous snake container just biting the shit out of everyone at the zoo...ABI spiked out of neutral and QQQ with an epic pants shitting (thank TSLA for that) and bulls got 24 hours and 1 session to get this under control. COVID quake? This the big one? Or just another tremor? Stay tuned...

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: VOLS up a lot since Friday, GEX negative, internals neutral...no FVGs to magnet to...either going to new ATH here or the other way...range expansion coming and after today's action even more dicey. Stay tuned.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure - holy shit look at 9 day vol???!!!

QQQ Summary: TSLA call buyers today....

Oh whoa - the FAANGs are due correction (or more) but TSLA and others are due a reality check so here we go...expect volatility to be INSANE here with 9 day vol like this ... could be a WILD ASS week.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

SMH Summary: Bad candle. Let's see if there is follow through tomorrow.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: Looks like it still wants to tag the upper FVG tomorrow imo...tbd. VOL is up and it is dicey out there, but price still has that magnet higher.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral (if not bearish close w/ massive intraday spike)

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Bag-o-shit. COVID, as noted this weekend, is like kryptonite for small caps. This is in real trouble if it doesn't turn around in next 2 sessions.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: Exactly what we wanted - FVG filled at the open. Couldn't hold it...I am greedy I still want this to go higher tomorrow and Wednesday. Not sure I will get it but that is what I want.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Tick tock....

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: BTD.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Setup continues to be simmering on the stove...bulls better hope this is contained.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Shot across the bow. GDX and GDXJ smoked today. Leads me to believe that correction is coming for GLD. Watch margin calls as I have stated many times. That is only main issue here for bullish case. IF this were to come to about 145 you would see a giant dump truck of shares bought...by me.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Failed at the main resistance. $16.50 is the must hold level on a pull back. Below that and this starts hunting much lower because there was no volume at lower levels...I have no edge here. Bullish long term, just depends on where the pullback lands which may be a month or so process to sort through.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: This hit $40 which is a resistance level back to 2013 and has begun to correct. Now all about how severe or not the correction is. I also think this won't be a quick thing...may be a multi-month correction. I could be wrong, but this has to shake everyone off before it explodes through $40. Around $25-27 would be amazing opportunity if seen (or even $22.

THE END

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