7/14/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Dealers buy the dip and sell the rip.


When could this technically flip regimes: Flip is now 3140 and below.


Flipped fully after hours so not going to hold it back until tomorrow. If it doesn't hold tomorrow for some reason that is different.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX snakes shot with the 12 gauge at the open...getting skinned after hours now so even worse than the close which was -8.29% and VXX -5.76%

  • UUP was meh today -0.19%

  • TLT was bought today +0.14%

  • SPY was bought today +1.30%

  • QQQ was bought today +0.71%

  • IWM was bought today +1.66%

  • SMH was bought today +1.68%

  • FAANGs mixed

  • HYG was bought today +0.85%

  • XLF was bought today +0.51%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


J-Rome and the team touring some local students on their yield curve control machine today. Just press the 'Not Allowed' button - we do that every day if this number up here on your monitor from these futures prices right here show as red":

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - Texas new record of cases. Florida no better today. But hey...lets fuckin open Disney...but you can't scream on a roller coaster though.

  • US/China relations - DJT shooting 16 out the clip and the 1 in the whole at his presser tonight...lots of 'Jiinaa'...the 'Plague'...the 'WHO'...'hold them responsible'...'Hong Kong sanctions'...no 'more favoritism'. Retaliation should be light I suspect from Jiinaa. Right...

  • $USD - Red

  • Bonds (TLT) - Red

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Red

  • GEX levels - Green


Yield curve control was thrown out today which means its coming. Was not expecting it at this stage of the game, but that must be how afraid they are of losing control. This is not something I want to take lightly moving forward. I am going to see what happens this week, but if they follow through with the threat, it is going to adjust the schema for the market potentially going forward. No coincidence that was thrown out today following yesterday's QQQ vol spike and move.


Will YCC matter? Hard to say. Insolvencies are massive and the largest loan loss provisions of all time are set aside as of Q2 by the banks revealed today...but this is of no consequence yet. Let's see what shakes out the tree the rest of the week. Today's action was not OPEX related. It was teetering when the YCC comments were made and since then we are now up almost 3% (including AH).


SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeaways: Yield Curve Control = green everything.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV BONDS:

Sector Takeaways: Yield Curve Control = green everything.


SECTORS BONDS/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeaways: Yield Curve Control = green everything.


SECTORS BONDS/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeaways: Yield Curve Control = green everything except a green dollar.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary:


Killed it before $37.50 as required. Mission accomplished and flushed it below $33 in AH so headed back to $31. Below $31 is $26.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 3 bulls and 1 bear.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Total comeback.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Recovery.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Double recovery.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Triple recovery.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Get back to neutral.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Quadruple recovery.


INTERNALS Summary:

So. much. winning.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: VOLS up - no one gives a shit. Shut up and watch this go up to $322 after hours now. Jeez.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: TSLA call buyers today....came right back because they are in it

Down 5% from high to low on new ATH was first time since 2000 top...guess that won't matter tomorrow...or will it?

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

SMH Summary: Rally back today. No new highs. Lets see what happens tomorrow.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: Will fill the FVG in the AM. That should do it for this as vol is up a lot more today, calls are being bought like crazy today and momentum will be burnt out tomorrow. That is unless something else is in motion.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Nothing to see here - up another 2.25% after hours.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: Looking for upper FVGs to get filled since we are all rainbows, sprites, and unicorns and shit tomorrow.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Zombie.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Commentary today irrelevant - crushed after hours.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Setup continues to be simmering on the stove...but nothing yet.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Bounced right back. Big selling underneath.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Also bounced right back.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Bounced back also with big selling underneath.

THE END

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