7/15/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Dealers buy the dip and sell the rip.


When could this technically flip regimes: Flip is now 3140 and below.


Struggling with 3230. Will it matter?

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX snakes are being processed for their venom, rattles cut off, and heads put in a jar. More below...closed -5.96% and VXX -2.86%

  • UUP was puked out early and came back to meh today -0.27%

  • TLT was not bought today -0.47%

  • SPY was bought today +0.92%

  • QQQ was bought today +0.20%

  • IWM was YUUUGELY bought today +3.67%

  • SMH was not bought today -0.46%

  • FAANGs mixed...hmmm...two days in a row

  • HYG was bought today +0.57%

  • XLF was bought today +1.98%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


The scene from the future where J-Rome and the Manuch are at their Senate trial for the failed YCC experiment...and all the Senators are angry that bought the dip...that was the one that didn't work:

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - CA more cases. FL more cases. TX more cases. New states with more cases. Disney opened. Schools in Florida start in 3 weeks...nothing to see here move along.

  • US/China relations - China just cleaning out Hong Kong right now with all kinds of new rules and taxes...and arrests and imprisonments. Believe me, they are not going to let DJT slide on his comments last night.

  • $USD - Red

  • Bonds (TLT) - Red

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Red

  • GEX levels - Green


More FEDsury speakers today. One a day keeps the red away, remember.


So about that markets functioning normally now bull shit. Below is the Nasdaq 'violence reading'...it measures the areas where we touch lows and highs in the same window for Advance/Decline formula. You can see this only happens in 2008, 2011, 2015. Didn't happen in 2018. However starting in 2020...SHIT. SHOW. Numerous hits topside and low side...nothing is normal about this.

Yield curve control etc. is being thrown out like it is guaranteed to work. Same thing with MMT. But as you can see here...this chart is a joke from Feb 2020 on. I am not saying that their acronym suitcase won't work, I am just saying that we are in uncharted territory and these are the guys steering the ship (h/t zh):


Things seem like they can go on in absurdity and do so indefinitely as of late. Is that a possibility? Yeah I think so. Probability? Sure. Odds? 50/50. Maybe. We are totally off the reservation at this point...so we are a coin flip at all times now.


Having said that, we are are nearing/at a crucial juncture based on price structures and all that macro stuff like an election, China war, COVID, some other stuff like insolvencies and bankruptcies empty airports, tech eating everything, riots, police units being defunded. You know - the usual shit going on in life.


So, yeah. 50/50 this guy and the team he works for can keep it in the middle of the road. I am sure they got this under control. Like the below. Totally under control:

I am not sure what is out there...but there is a buffet of macro fuckery to choose from that could go full on shenanigans at any time. Act accordingly.

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeaways: Yield Curve Control = green everything. Day 2.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV BONDS:

Sector Takeaways: Yield Curve Control = green everything. Day 2.


SECTORS BONDS/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeaways: Yield Curve Control = green everything. Day 2.


SECTORS BONDS/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeaways: Yield Curve Control = green everything except a green dollar. Day 2.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary:


The thing about witchcraft and voodoo like the volatility is that even though they kill the snake, chop its head off and put it in a jar, sell the rattle, and eat it...the thing can just reincarnate and come right back and get you again because fear is a natural principle of existence. It is both necessary and relevant.


I think what the FEDsury is attempting to do now is like voodoo and to continue to try this with VIX suppression is truly like cobra snake handling...with a voodoo twist. Hope they got fast hands...they will need them the rest of their existence how they are choosing to play this.

Volatility never goes away...it moves in a circle. It comes back around. Maybe it is not tomorrow. But its guaranteed coming back around ...

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 2 bulls and 2 bears.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Mostly green.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Gap filled. Where are we going now?


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Double recovery.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Gap and go? Gap and crap? tbd...


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Ruh roh...this is 2-3 days ahead of indexes..typically


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Get on with it.


INTERNALS Summary:

Bulls looking at the bright side of the internals with the YCC high right now...can't lose bro.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: VOLS up more - still no one gives a shit. Does not show the internal strength and call buying is rampant again.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: GEX is negative. 9 day vol is record setting. Something smells. QQQ holders to me:

From yesterday: Down 5% from high to low on new ATH was first time since 2000 top...guess that won't matter tomorrow...or will it?


I don't know. We will see.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

SMH Summary: Unch today...no dice either way.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral (excessive call buying)

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: Filled the FVG as suspected and closed red candle for us. We wrote our own candle formula that DISCOUNTS overnight ramps (fuck them) so today open was higher than close so (minus the overnight ramp) was a red candle. FVGs are magnets...once they disappear algos get confused. Fascinating stuff. Let's see what DIA has left in the tank now.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Vol up to 70 short term and at 60 for 30 day. Who is buying this shit here? Algos are on the 'rotation play'? Question...how do you rotate to companies to buy their equity if they are insolvent and closed? A. you don't - it's like playing fortnite...shit is a video game. That is what this is at this point.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: Pulling out the rain slicker...

You know what that means...almost time b/c after Huey comes the axe.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Zombie. No change.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Consolidating at higher levels. Next move may be quite strong.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Setup continues to be simmering on the stove...I think this has been talked down and mistreated for quite some time...just saying. And yet DXY still mid 90's...watch price not yammering narratives.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Keeps advancing (well...snail pace advancing now). Big selling underneath - day 2.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Bullish but heading up into resistance on thin volume. Lots of gaps left behind. Not bearish on this at all. Long term holders, don't pay attention. Short term trades, watch for thief move at any point now.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Selling underneath - day 2. Volume is super thing up here compared to $26 level (massive volume and VPOC).

THE END

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