7/16/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Dealers buy the dip and sell the rip.


When could this technically flip regimes: Flip is now 3170 and below.


OPEX tomorrow...then what?

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX fought off the FEDcraft today...closed +0.92% and VXX -1.55%

  • UUP was bought today +0.35%

  • TLT was bought today +0.47%

  • SPY was sold today -0.33%

  • QQQ was sold today -0.68%

  • IWM was sold today -0.59%

  • SMH was sold today -0.08%

  • FAANGs mixed...hmmm...three days in a row

  • HYG was bought today +0.10%

  • XLF was unch today +0.00%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


The scene from the team meeting today showing the inner working secrets of how to generate ES futures FOMO and all the derivative knock on effects that brings:

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - Trending on twitter today was the Governor of Florida. Why? Because he is now known as Ron #DeathSantis. Not much else to add I guess after that. The internet wins again.

  • US/China relations - China doing drills off Taiwan coast. Totally nothing to see here. Move along.

  • $USD - Green

  • Bonds (TLT) - Green

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Meh

  • GEX levels - Green


Yet ANOTHER FEDsury speaker today. One a day keeps the red away, remember.


OPEX tomorrow so pin the nose probably tonight and tomorrow morning - then all bets are off. All the rest of the commentary I will save for the weekend.

WINNERS:

Takeaways: Ireland for the win!


LOSERS:

Takeaways: Nature's Flatulence for the fail...with China right behind and silver taking the bronze medal.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary:


YCC conversation everyday now by FEDsury members is like trying to put that one last curse on from the movie The Mummy that keeps the evil VIX entombed for all eternity. Hopefully for their sake the FEDcraft works...because if not it will bring all that extra curricular stuff with it when it gets out...

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 2 bulls and 2 bears.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Mostly red.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Gap filled. Now what? Momentum tapping to end of the range...inflection.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Stumbled today...on high momentum reading. Not bullish.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Will it break out or will it fail?


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Oh my...worth watching tomorrow...2-3 days ahead of indexes, remember.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Murky.


INTERNALS Summary: Tomorrow may sneak in some serious implications after the OPEX open. I would pay close attention.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: Looks like it is getting pinned for OPEX tomorrow.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: Short term vol even worse...wtff is going on here...seems like there is something under the surface

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

SMH Summary: Unch today...no dice either way....again

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral (excessive call buying)

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: Just meandering now looking for direction...

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Vol up still too high...this smells of some shenanigans before a rug pull to me...

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: Still wearing the rain slicker...

...almost time

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Zombie. No change. Ever.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: No change. Consolidating at higher levels. Next move may be quite strong.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Bullish action today as I noted on twitter. Watch this next 3 trading days.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Starting to show some exhaustion - presented my two scenarios in the coming week.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Also starting to show some exhaustion - presented my two scenarios in the coming week.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Starting to show signs of the selling underneath catching up with price.

THE END

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