7/20/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

Updated: Jul 22

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Dealers buy the dip and sell the rip.


When could this technically flip regimes: Flip is now 3170 and below.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX not much movement under the water...closed -4.75% and VXX -4.54%

  • UUP was sold today -0.15%

  • TLT was bought today +0.25%

  • SPY was bought today +0.81%

  • QQQ was bought today +2.84%

  • IWM was sold today -0.43%

  • SMH was bought today +2.00%

  • FAANGs SCREAMING GREEN bought

  • HYG was bought today +0.60%

  • XLF was sold today -0.46%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


The Manuch took center stage today letting us know that he will be pulling out another stimulus to the tune of:

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - It's Monday so cases always look much improved because Sat/Sun are not reported...what a joke people - same thing every Monday...oh...and there are no ICU beds in Florida and infants can contract it but DJT says it's just going to go away and stuff...mmm hmmmm

  • US/China relations - nothing today

  • $USD - Meh

  • Bonds (TLT) - Meh

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Dropping

  • GEX levels - Green


Welp...all the internals are very bad. BUT - when you have a $trillion to throw at something...it's one hell of a rush of dopamine call buying algos gone wild. Demigods going for the inflation - no doubt about it now.


Other news that is far more interesting - look up GPT-3/Y-Combinator. All this stimulus will do is expedite stuff like this getting developed in a fast tracked manner as I denoted last weekend...COVID was/is the LAE and tech is leaving the building...


The inflection to watch for now is what happens to the $USD here at the FVG fill (we are a stone's throw away now)...that and the VIX/VXX left behind big FVGs from Feb. No reaction here at these levels when those fill = hyper inflation lift-off can occur at any time.


"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times" - this about sums it all up.

WINNERS:

Takeaways: So much green...bulls on their way out the door today:

LOSERS:

Takeaways: Nature's Flatulence for the fail...seems to be a recurring theme. We don't need energy...we only need the printterrrrrr....

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary: Short VOL targeting folks making sure the crime scene is clean of any fingerprints.

VXX is looking more likely to fill the lower gaps now but is on cue for reincarnation/Nintendo reset button at any moment. So keep your heads up that ... could come from anywhere at this level of oversold.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: All bulls.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Mostly red.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Rejection.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Rejection #2


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Rejection #3


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Keeps on cruising back up to volatility.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Weak sauce.


INTERNALS Summary: Internals are looking like a steaming pile of donkey s**t BUT index call buying algos and index CTA bulls today said:

We will see if it matters at any point the rest of the week...it very well may get bulls at any moment...but if not...this can get dumb and dumber...believe it. $trillions make people do crazy ass shit.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: VOL is dropping. FVG is above and is now a magnet and is now highly likely to get tagged so bulls right now:

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: QQQ bulls today finding inner piece and just buying that s**t:

Short term VOL came down a little today (still insane reading) and those put sellers from last week looking like geniuses right now and the put buyers going into the suicide watch with Ghislaine...maybe the put sellers knew about the $1 trillion stimulus announcement today?...

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SMH Summary: Oh - you thought that this was going to correct? Ha...you meant to say consolidate right?...

I can just picture the buy side right now...

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral (insane excessive call buying)

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: Probably going to migrate higher to the open FVG at this point unless there is more to the schematic this week.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: VOL down 20% today...breakout and up tomorrow? Fuck it, why not.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: Still wearing the rain slicker...even in the middle of the 95+ degree heat down here in FL.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Opening an email I received this evening...


Dear ViW,


Zombie this you nightly blogger...

Signed - The Manuch.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: No change. Consolidating at higher levels. Next move may be quite strong...but could just as well be strong down if it doesn't hold the FVGs below price.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Still watching that lower FVG. Get it over with already and tag that...so we can see what happens next.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Gold just killing it right now...no pullbacks.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Silver bulls been waiting a LONNNNNNGGGG TIMMMEEE to do this:

Be careful with this angry shiny stuff...over $19-20 in SLV and it could get ugly for bears.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Starting to get that feeling that miners are just fucking with everyone...

IF we keep throwing $trillions at it a couple times a week...gold and silver could be worth $20,000/2,000 by next year lol. Did I add too many zeros? Fuck it...we are going full Zimbabwe if that happens so why not..

THE END

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