7/21/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Dealers buy the dip and sell the rip.


When could this technically flip regimes: Flip is now 3170-3190 and below.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX fighting for its life...closed +1.55% and VXX +0.89%

  • UUP was sold today -0.62%

  • TLT was bought today +0.06%

  • SPY was bought today +0.21%

  • QQQ was sold today -1.04%

  • IWM was bought today +1.42%

  • SMH was sold today -0.50%

  • FAANGs ALL RED

  • HYG was bought today +0.46%

  • XLF was really bought today +1.97%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


The Manuch got sideswiped by the 'Cocaine Gobbler' into the close...no deal!

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - Most deaths since early June today..

  • US/China relations - nothing today...

  • $USD - Meh

  • Bonds (TLT) - Meh

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Meh

  • GEX levels - Meh


Silver is implying inflation of the monetary 'Zimbabwe' kind all the sudden. The precious that is sitting in my safe is looking shinier today so I say thank you. I am however light on the equity precious which is a little burr in my saddle but just not enough time in the day to win them all.


This is what it looks like when a dealer gets either run over on a mega-short OR they have stepped aside and are not intervening. Regardless these are serious moves in SI - up another 6% here as I write this tonight. One thing to note on silver...it can be up 25% in 5 days and down 40% in 2...so keep things tempered with this stuff and HODL.


Silver is a gauge for 'perceived' inflation...so chalk one up 1 pt for inflation in the win column. The dollar isn't collapsing though and neither is the VIX so that's .5 point for deflation. We shall have to wait and see how this unfolds as we are witnessing some serious financial science experiments at the moment and volatility is totally capable of just exploding at any time (and in reality the price of silver last 48 hours is VOLATILE - just happens to be to the upside). So 'correlating this' or 'inversing that' or 'because of this then this has historically worked' is probably going to be bad for one's health going forward from here. I prefer to keep taking each at bat one pitch at a time.

WINNERS:

Takeaways: Silver and silver associated things are green...as is most everything else.


LOSERS:

Takeaways: Bio, tech, and semis red. That's a change.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary: Bounce? Green today...something must be wrong.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 3 bulls and 1 bear.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Mostly green.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Broke through.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Meh.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Breakout tomorrow?


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Back into volatility...maybe it is just referring to Silver.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Still meh


INTERNALS Summary: Meh. Tomorrow could shed more light. We are in total blow off mode in regards to liquidity so everything should break through. If it doesn't here, huge fail by bulls.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: FVG is above and is now a magnet and is now highly likely to get tagged. See what happens then.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: VOLS up back up again...GEX red...something is wrong here but we haven't seen anything break yet.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SMH Summary: Red today but nothing significant.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral (insane excessive call buying at insane levels)

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: Probably going to migrate higher to the open FVG at this point unless there is more to the schematic this week with VPOC below price.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Nothing to keep this from getting to that upper FVG if it goes above the recent high.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: Still wearing the rain slicker...even in the middle of the 95+ degree heat down here in FL. Hasn't changed here on Tuesday. I want to see above 25.08 before I take it off.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: No negative price action allowed. This is the new Social Security Fund for the boomer pensioners. It is a national issue if it goes red for 30 min.


TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Bullish if it doesn't break down here at all.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Lower FVG filled. Let's see what happens now.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: You can see from the crosshairs that we are at 1o year resistance. Looking like it will get torched but this is 10 yr resistance so don't be surprised if there is something scary and sharp soon to shake off the weak recent-momo nonsense before the 250 area is targeted.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Told you. Angry mofo silver is. This is the weekly view. No resistance here going back years (look at the volume profile - good god). If this is gone then first good panic crash 10-20% single day suicide drop is a great buy I suspect.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Showed you where the weekly FVG fill is. Should get that on this leg up I would believe.

THE END

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