7/23/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Dealers buy the dip and sell the rip.


When could this technically flip regimes: Flip is now 3200-3210 and below.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX reincarnated today...closed +7.24% and VXX +3.12%

  • UUP was sold today -0.19%

  • TLT was really bought today +1.17%

  • SPY was sold today -1.19%

  • QQQ was really sold today -2.61%

  • IWM was meh today +0.10%

  • SMH was sold today -1.65%

  • FAANGs REDDD

  • HYG was meh today -0.07%

  • XLF was meh today +0.08%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


They skipped on sending the intern and just went straight to the Sicario to deliver the message to the House Anti-Trust committee members in regards to their pursuit of the FAANGs today...

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - another day...another record of deaths and new cases...just so much winning.

  • $USD - Red

  • Bonds (TLT) - Green

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Green

  • GEX levels - Red


Shot across the bow today? Intraday selling...no overnight gaps...advance decline showed some heavier selling...VOLs were all up...USD was up from the puke out lows this AM and closed higher...QQQ vomit bags handed out at the Anti-Trust announcement presser...but I am hard pressed to think that this just rolls over that easy.


There are a billion negative factors that should have caused this to roll over and die for a while now...but nothing thus far. Earnings are not done yet...and the FVG for SPY is not filled and we are very close. Even next IWM FVG is sitting a few % points above - so that is there too. But today was definitely a shot across the bow of the gorpy garbage low volume small lots buyers.


Friday's have been risk free, so will tomorrow be any different? Hard to know. But it has been harder and harder for the indexes to eek out gains here and it's getting gorpy gorpy gorpy up here...and you know what that means...all the price action for months - it can all be cleansed out in 2-3 sessions if it gets the doom loop going. One should be alert now for a regime change at any point in the next week or so.

WINNERS:

Takeaways: Way to go Nature's Flatulence! Platinum too...'Platinum Flatulence' killing it today...I am trademarking that...lmao.


LOSERS:

Takeaways: Bloodbath.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary: $30 is the barrier for VXX and look where it closed. I expect all forces of man and nature to force a close below $30 tomorrow. Above it...and then above $32.50 VPOC level (which keeps coming down which means it is taking more and more shorts to hold this down here) and mayhem could be back. They have attempted to put that hex spell on the dead corpse of the vol space last 120 days...but as I have said ad nauseum...vols are a natural phenomenon that man cannot 'control'...kill it and it just reincarnates in different iterations over and over again. You can't erase vol - you have to learn to live with it...FED cannot accept that.


Above $38 - were it to get there - is very bad news for all market participants again.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 3 bulls and 1 bear.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Mostly bearish. So today's selling was meaningful.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Interesting that this is burnt out momentum completely AND it cannot break through. Meaningful.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Interesting spot to fail. Momentum burnt out. This is proving to be serious resistance - I am impressed.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Could not breakout here...meaningful.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Backing off a little...again today. This is why I am not 100% canceling the FVG fill for SPY yet. Still in the cards.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Weak - been that way all week.


INTERNALS Summary: Bulls today on the FAANG anti-trust stuff...

Its not unsalvageable where the indicators are sitting here for bulls - they can push these up and through with a major volume buy session or two and break everything out. But they better move that car tomorrow/Monday or the fuckening may start...they are playing with fire failing at these specific levels across the board.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: Missed the FVG by a couple ticks...WTFF dude...COME ON...


So we wait to see. This could easily get back to $330 and just wipe all the hope from bears forever (as they are good and ready for the main even after today) OR it could fail now - either way it is smelling like a dead animal up here so it goes here or after $330 is cleaned up. I suspect it tries to get back up there b/c ya know 'Risk Free Fridays' and all but I can always be wrong. Still above the VPOC so nothing massively bearish until that breaks and VOLs are still meh.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: Bizarre action persists - short term VOL back up again over 150. GEX very negative all the sudden. This has been disconnected from the mean for sometime...about to get hit? AMZN and AAPL charts have no volume supporting this breakout from previous highs. This could be a correction (if more obscene liquidity is released) OR it could morph into much more (if fiscal folks circle jerk here and shit the bed)...

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

SMH Summary: This is starting to get REAL HEAVY all the sudden. BUT demand below is pretty solid. We will see what a correction looks like.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral (wild action)

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: VOLs creeping up. VPOC is right there at price...below it ruh roh. GEX already negative...this could get interesting. Above it price could leak to upper FVG...

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: VOLs creeping up today - still sitting over the VPOC. GEX close to a flip. Lots of mixed signals. Very bearish below the VPOC but can be gorpy garbage above it...

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: Positive GEX still...will keep monitoring. Held up well today. Go on...go on...get up there to $25.08 please you little mot...


HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: There are 3 people left on earth and two dogs, eight chickens, one deer, and a whale. There is also a computer that is still running a program to buy shares of the HYG - The Boomer Social Security Fund. That value of the junk bond ETF is $10,478,087.87 a share and no company has ever defaulted. The year is 2047.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Bullish. BTFD.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: I believe today I saw the last Dollar-Bulls post their 'I may be wrong' threads. So everyone has given up on the greenback. You know what that means...that means a rip your throat out rally probably about to happen.


Also, there are no FVGs lower for algos to hunt...they are all to the upside with the highest ones at the VPOC level and those algos eat that FVG cake so the question is does that VPOC kill a countertrend rally or will that be a gap and go above it when it happens. That would be really bad for equities. One level at a time though.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Getting a little bubbly today and gapping...remember this is a collateral for Ol 'Marge - she comes for the good collateral in the doom loops. That is the only thing that derails gold now. THE ONLY thing.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Would expect some FVGs to get filled here. GEX level of significance is $20. Below that can start clearing FVGs quick. $16.50 is VPOC...should not go below there if bullish (I would expect it to remain above $18 here if ultra bullish).

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: VPOC is $32 and GEX momentum level for downside is under $40. Bulls beware of your levels. Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. Don't be a pig here if you cleaned up on the ride. It will go higher, no doubt, but should visit $30s again.

THE END

Sign Up for Exclusive Trading Tips, Tools and More

DISCLAIMER: This site and all prepared documents are for information and illustrative purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding a course of action, including without limitation as those terms are used in any applicable law or regulation. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein (i) voliswell.com is not acting in a fiduciary or advisory capacity under any contract with you, or any applicable law or regulation, (ii) that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith, as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment and your specific circumstances and objectives, (iii) that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action and evaluating investment risks independently. voliswell.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide tax, accounting, actuarial, record keeping, legal, broker/dealer or any related services. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas and the material presented herein. You may not rely on the material contained herein. voliswell.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. No part of this website or it’s documentation may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the written permission of voliswell.com except for your internal use. This material is being provided to you at no cost.

© 2020 VOLisWELL