7/27/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


LIMBO

What this means: No dice. Everyone is waiting on something.


When could this technically flip regimes: Flip is now 3200-3210 and below.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX swipe left-eww...closed -4.26% and VXX -2.75%

  • UUP was swipe left today -0.75%

  • TLT was swipe left today -0.37%

  • SPY was swipe right today +0.73%

  • QQQ was swipe right today +1.78%

  • IWM was swipe right today +1.04%

  • SMH was swipe right and wear nice cologne today +4.03%

  • FAANGs GREEN

  • HYG was meh today +0.24%

  • XLF was swipe left today -0.82%

  • SLV was swipe right wear nice cologne and that nice shirt today +7.64%

  • GLD was swipe right today +1.98%

  • GBTC was swipe right and fuck I fell in love today +17.05%



J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


"You like my trillion fiscal today J?"


"Yeah Steve...its 'Money'...get it...hahahaha...but wait until Wednesday bro"

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - tired of reporting this...just fucking depressing and our leadership in every category is just unparalleled - we will be ashamed of this for multiple generations.

  • US/China - no news ... except bomb shelters being announced in Beijing over the weekend and public signage being installed to direct folks to said shelters...but...nothing to see here move along.

  • $USD - Red

  • Bonds (TLT) - Red

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Red

  • GEX levels - Green


Silver and Gold and Bitcoin. JFC just slow down. Total pillaging now and price discovery at its finest when you see securities get into those areas where the seller volume is not present. Imagine this, in reverse, that is what would happen if the FED turned off the printing press to equities and all things debt instrument based.


The PMs and BTC are saying something...YCC? Starting to sniff it? Either they are completely wrong or the path has been chosen for us and we just don't officially know it yet. I suspect we know soon enough. Just remember that this won't be a straight upwards shot, there will be twists and turns and there is no proven fact set that can show us we are in any way out of the deflation/insolvency problems. But the path of least resistance appears to be CTRL+P based on the ZERO INTEREST politicians have right now to not send out checks before November to everyone.


At this rate, we may have to print $1-2 Trillion every 2 weeks. That's fucked if this has come to that. I hate to break it to everyone. Hyperinflation isn't a good thing at all. Stagflation maybe? Some hybrid of even that? Imagiflation? Idk. Let's see what Wednesday brings us with J-Rome. YCC a surprise coming OR maybe there is an epic rug pull about to happen with a yield spike du jour?...


Silver first real resistance is $28-30 area. FWIW. More below.

WINNERS:

Takeaways: Gold, silver, gold and silver digging companies, digital gold printers (semis), basic materials companies that help deliver gold companies things...ya know all that.


LOSERS:

Takeaways: Nat Gas is literally the WORST investment of all time...the widow maker for a reason.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary: $30 is the line in the sand. Back under it. Nothing else to it at this point.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: Stop it with 4 bears. No way. Lies. lol


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: See all bulls.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Not giving up yet.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Meh and still under the ceiling.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Weak


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Bottoming again in neutral. Watch this tomorrow and Wednesday.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Could go either way.


INTERNALS Summary:

I expect this to meander up and around these break out/break down points until Wednesday or Thursday. Better off taking a nap between now and then. If something changes I will wake you up.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: Starting to show some volatility across the time frames. That is new and exciting. Price action wonky as expected. Would expect the same until Wednesday or Thursday honestly.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: This short vol issue just won't roll off. Longer duration vol picking up. Not mattering yet though...but up move in price action was expected until Wednesday based on the weekend read.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

SMH Summary: Hahahahahaha. Remember when NVDA got lit b/c Crypto go lit back in 2018...redux? Just throwing it out there.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral (wild action)

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: VOLs creeping up...otherwise like watching paint dry.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: VOLs creeping up today - which is new. Otherwise move along.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: GEX steady moving towards neutral and this is looking fugly...surprise on Wednesday coming?


HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: I am considering discontinuing the discussion of this bucket of turds...maybe we start looking at some mining stocks instead...something with some life in it.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Bullish. BTFD.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Negative

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: GEX flipped back positive. That is about it. Just getting railed right now. BUT I still think there is a surprise out there coming ...

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Marge not in charge right now. Bulls on parade. Get some.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: For 10 years silver has been a bitch. Today - it's Will Hunting...getting those digits

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Ha - riding the wave...

GBTC: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GBTC Summary: VPOC well below price now. $13.10 is next ceiling. Through that $15 level. Through that and hide the women and children. Just broke up and out of 1 year VWAP swimming pool - just look at the chart.

THE END

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