7/28/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


LIMBO

What this means: Technically we have flipped to negative GEX environment, but I refuse to sign off on that pre-FOMC...better to be sure after tomorrow..


When could this technically flip regimes: Flip is now 3220~ and above.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX held up today...hmmm... +2.83% and VXX -0.58%

  • UUP bid today +0.16%

  • TLT bid today +0.69%

  • SPY not bid today -0.63%

  • QQQ not bid today -1.27%

  • IWM not bid today -1.00%

  • SMH really not bid today -2.60%

  • FAANGs not bid

  • HYG not bid today -0.26%

  • XLF not bid today -0.25%

  • SLV not bid today -0.26%

  • GLD bid today +0.83%

  • GBTC bid today +3.13%



J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


"Hey Mitch & Steve - fiscal this..."

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - ...its bad...its not getting better...the end.

  • US/China - Taiwan...this is 100% oh my fuck...I can't believe I missed this one, thanks @EpsilonTheory https://www.epsilontheory.com/taiwan-is-now-arrakis/

  • $USD - Green

  • Bonds (TLT) - Green

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Green

  • GEX levels - Red


Some thoughts...


This is $TAIL...it is a very good volatility play with muted volatility (seriously)...it has a very interesting setup in place...the look I love to see with momentum and a VPOC that could get shattered...hmmm


This is $AXP (American Express) with the weekly chart looking pretty fugly...defaults coming back to roost again? If so this is going to $70 or $51...


This is $XLF (banks)...hanging on by a thread in a very crucial position...hmm


You will see below that GEXs have turned red and the internals are not looking very good. VOLs are still not getting cranking but they are not dead by any means. Price is still hanging at the highs all over the place...which J-Rome surprise are we going to get tomorrow?


The YCC?


OR


The "Oh...Fuck Me."


Oh the anticipation...

WINNERS:

Takeaways: "Nat Gas is literally the WORST investment of all time...the widow maker for a reason." I said this yesterday...boy it showed me what time it was today huh...lmao


LOSERS:

Takeaways: Interesting that Taiwan was rocked today....hmmm

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary: $30 is the line in the sand. See what happens tomorrow.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 2 bulls. 2 bears.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Hmmm...all bears.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Ruh roh...hmmm...


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Rejected...hmmm


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Watch this...hmmm


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Bottoming again in neutral. Watch this tomorrow.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Hmmm...


INTERNALS Summary:

Ruh roh internals don't do it......................................................................

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: Prefer to defer until after tomorrow ..

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: Looking more like it is about to roll over...but I prefer to defer until tomorrow...

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SMH Summary: Smacked good today...just a one day wonder or is there something else here?

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral (wild action)

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: Prefer to defer until after tomorrow ..

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Put Buying

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Prefer to defer until after tomorrow ..

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: GEX steady moving towards neutral (looking worse every day) and this is looking fugly...

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Beraish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Lifeless...

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Bullish. BTFD.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Held firm today...meaning very little at the moment though...prefer to defer until after tomorrow ..

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Marge not in charge right now. Bulls still on parade.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Smacked down 10% overnight an immediately bough in futures...insane action in this right now.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Nothing to report.

GBTC: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GBTC Summary: "VPOC well below price now. $13.10 is next ceiling." From last night and looked where it stopped - $13.11 area - ha. Let's see how the pull back materializes, this was on fire and needs a breather.

THE END

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