7/29/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Dealers will buy the dip and sell the rip in the perfect balance of fabricated prosperity provided by fiscal & monetary stimulus at the same time.


When could this technically flip regimes: Flip is now 3200-3205~ and below.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX are fading away... -5.27% and VXX -2.06%

  • UUP not bought -0.63%

  • TLT not bought -0.63%

  • SPY bought +1.23%

  • QQQ bought +1.15%

  • IWM bought +2.20%

  • SMH bought +2.52%

  • FAANGs mixed but mostly green

  • HYG bought +0.56%

  • XLF bought +1.87%

  • SLV not bought -0.88%

  • GLD bid today +0.75%

  • GBTC not bought -1.44%



J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


"See you warn them about the scary blah blah blah COVID blah blah blah economy in trouble blah blah blah and then you say we have a long road ahead and and then you do YCC but you don't call it YCC...and then...GREEEEEENNN spoos. See. Nothing to it..."

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - records deaths, records in cases, so much winning.

  • US/China - nothing happened today so must be completely settled now

  • $USD - Red

  • Bonds (TLT) - Red

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Red

  • GEX levels - Green


Well that was a waste of time.


Today is a tribute to Arrrnnnnnuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulllldddd. This is because right now is all about the pump...

Will today's nothing burger materialize into higher and higher prices this week? Hard to say but today was part 1 and tomorrow is part 2 with the bulk of the earnings. Last night Spoos was poo and then when we awoke it was Mr. Clean. No pullbacks allowed.


Every analysis tonight has a GIF tribute to Mr. Pump himself (Arnold) who is rumored to be the idol of The Manuch...but I cannot confirm that...just a rumor that he has an Arnold poster in his office.


As for the VIX...looking pretty desperate for a life line as the low 20s are just hanging out there in line of sight...but things can always change on a moment's notice when you are playing demi-god.


Today Rd 1: Skynet 1 vs Reality 0


WINNERS:

Takeaways: Everything is green.


LOSERS:

Takeaways: The smallest group of red I have seen in a very long time. Even in this environment.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary: Headed to the nether regions? To think that VIX could be sub 20 (which is very plausible without something changing quick) and VXX sub $26 is mind numbing...but has to be entertained. VIX is now trying to not get terminated...

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 4 bears.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: 4 bulls.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: See why I wait on this stuff...J-Rome is powerful.


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: About to bust this setup too.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: And this one..


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Wow ... just wow... headed to complacency? Truly mesmerizing.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Headed to probe higher zones.


INTERNALS Summary: What did you say? Internals going to break down? Tell them Arnnnnuuulddd the bull...

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure

SPY Summary: VOLS down. GEX green. "Bulls, I am telling you that you should be careful..."

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: Bears better get this tonight or tomorrow...otherwise...bears will get totally recalled


SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

SMH Summary: So about yesterday and that Semiconductor drop...that continuing in this environment?

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Call Buying

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: DIA turning back up today from EMA support...

Yeah seriously Arnold, it happened...

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Just look at that ... up 2% on the rotation from fiscal to monetary...

That is a joke by the way and so is fundamental analysis at this point...just look at KODAK.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: Keep going to $25.08...

I'll be pulling out the shotgun just like Arnold..

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Just looks more and more like Skynet everyday

This is our future if those buying HYG have anything to do with it.

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Bullish. BTFD.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Just going down in flames according to every expert on the internet of things...

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Just keeps mowing down Skynet purchasing power attacks every day...if you keep pumping stimulus Zimbabwe units gold keeps shooting...

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Fighting to hold that level and keep pushing forward to save the purchasing power of regular everyday citizens who can't afford Gold (just like they can't afford AMZN)...

Aka high level consolidation. If it doesn't drop to $18 here...heading higher.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: People just jumping on the bandwagon...vs. long term holders...

GBTC: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GBTC Summary: $13.10 is the current ceiling. Below that is $10 and above it is $15 area...


THE END

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