7/30/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Dealers will buy the dip and sell the rip.


When could this technically flip regimes: Flip is now 3210~ and below.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX held up today... +2.74% and VXX +2.21%

  • UUP bid today -0.40%

  • TLT bid today +0.66%

  • SPY not bid today -0.36%

  • QQQ not bid today +0.52%

  • IWM not bid today -0.40%

  • SMH really not bid today +0.69%

  • FAANGs green...

  • HYG not bid today +0.21%

  • XLF not bid today -1.80%

  • SLV not bid today -3.59%

  • GLD bid today -0.74%

  • GBTC bid today -1.01%



J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


Crickets...from the dynamic duo. All the action was after the close when the Senate didn't approve any more fiscal support.


Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - All records. DJT presser crying about how bad it is...shit show. My cousin is a traveling Nurse. She is in Florida now. Her daily work getup is a HAZMAT SUIT.

  • US/China - Trump says tonight all China's fault in his cry me a river presser...expect more US riots here shortly in key cities...that seems to be the playbook from China at the moment...when US jacks up rhetoric - US cities have more internal instability...hmmmmmm...

  • $USD - Red

  • Bonds (TLT) - Green

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Green

  • GEX levels - Green


So a wasted day with the exception of the post close earnings fireworks. All the earnings were beats. We are pretty close the upside FVG fill on SPY which has been out there since February breakaway situation. Will that finally fill? If the gains of the AH session tonight hold into the morning, that is highly likely and if the FVG fills will there be new ATH in SPY? Why not at this point.


Internals are rejection city today, but ABI is on a bee-line to complacency. VIX is just hanging out at the intersection of flamethrower and failure. If VIX wakes up and fear comes back, it is wound so tight here that it could easily be a total flamethrower in August...


If there is no change in VIX, fear doesn't show up, you get the Fiscal situation solved next week, and the YCC is brought to the table for the 10YR to cap it...then you will have to expect the inflation trade to get running again for next leg up from runaway inflation expectations (Gold/Silver, Miners, and BTC). Regardless of which direction we are headed, sure feels like...


Let's see what tomorrow brings and I will get the weekend edition out on Saturday.

WINNERS:

Takeaways: Mixed bag here today...some of everything.


LOSERS:

Takeaways: Lot of red today...even on up day in indexes...FAANG weighting carrying the entire US stock market again?

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish/Neutral

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary: $30 is the line in the sand. Got hard rejected from there today...that is now the key vol short targeting level. Blow that out intraday and you may have something...overnight will not get it done. Has to be intraday with no FVG gaps left behind.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 2 bulls. 2 bears.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Hmmm...all bears.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Wow - rejected today - damn


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Rejected...2/2


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Rejected 3/3


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Just wow...so much complacency.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: So weak. Very heavy feel to this right now.


INTERNALS Summary:

Internals taking a big deuce today...bulls hope the FAANG circle jerk fest after hours lasts until open tomorrow or you may see a race for the exits tomorrow.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure

SPY Summary: Action during the day was meh...after hours index touched 327...lets see if that was it or if it will finally fill the $330 FVG tomorrow or next week. Regardless...boy this gorpy low volume rising this time around is getting really long in the tooth...August tears?

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: Up substantively after hours...these readings are worthless with all the FAANGs blowing out earnings. Let's see what they look like this weekend.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SMH Summary: Another day, another up thrust. Targeting a double in value since March lows here shortly.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Call Buying

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: This is looking the weakest of the bunch here right behind banks. Short.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Weak as well...trailing the banks. We will see what happens next week.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

XLF Summary: This is like sitting in Ghislaine's cell waiting for the hangman to come...just get it over with already. We all know the final outcome...why the waiting?

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: This is dead inside...but gains 20 bps a day ...SKY ...NET ...SKY ...NET ...SKY ...NET

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Bullish. BTFD. I buy every dip.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

UUP Summary: Pulling this beach ball all the way to the FVG that was a long shot. This is ULTRA OVERCOOKED to the downside now. I am not sure that this is going to get past the VPOC on a bounce but we will see. Its well overdue now.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Internals starting to fade...look for reaper move (swift, fast, and scary) if this persists.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Needs to hold $20 on pull back or headed to $18 or $17...that would equate to my scary pullback scenario but would be a buy more than likely. I would love to see that.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Pullback could be underway. $35 is highly likely and $32 is probable and if it goes all the way back to $30 back up the truck.

GBTC: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GBTC Summary: Positive price action today...still holding that VPOC level. That is the key in the next week-two weeks. If that holds...gobble this up.

THE END

Sign Up for Exclusive Trading Tips, Tools and More

DISCLAIMER: This site and all prepared documents are for information and illustrative purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding a course of action, including without limitation as those terms are used in any applicable law or regulation. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein (i) voliswell.com is not acting in a fiduciary or advisory capacity under any contract with you, or any applicable law or regulation, (ii) that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith, as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment and your specific circumstances and objectives, (iii) that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action and evaluating investment risks independently. voliswell.com does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide tax, accounting, actuarial, record keeping, legal, broker/dealer or any related services. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas and the material presented herein. You may not rely on the material contained herein. voliswell.com shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. No part of this website or it’s documentation may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the written permission of voliswell.com except for your internal use. This material is being provided to you at no cost.

© 2020 VOLisWELL