7/6/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

Updated: Jul 7

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


LIMBO

What this means: We won't have to wait much longer.


When could this technically flip regimes: Nirvana over 318 with gusto. Doom is now 3090 and below.


We are at 318. See what happens tomorrow/Wednesday.

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX starting to definitively hold their line VIX +0.94% and VXX -0.04%

  • UUP was not bought today -0.53%

  • TLT was not bought today -0.41%

  • SPY was bought today +1.54%

  • QQQ was really bought today +2.46%

  • IWM was bought today +0.72%

  • SMH was really bought today +2.76%

  • FAANGs all ultra-green

  • HYG +0.94% weak

  • XLF up +1.92%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


J-Rome and the Manuch (they are both Mr. Smith bots in different exoskeletons btw)...talking to the last bit of shorts left before total eradication of the anomaly is complete...

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - here in Florida where I live evening news talking about how there are no more ICU beds...flu mofos online talking about but no deaths...guess we will know in 2 weeks or less who is wrong.

  • US/China relations - China pulled the Trump playbook with their market ... feels like there is a secondary competition now lol

  • $USD - Red

  • Bonds (TLT) - Red

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - FLAT (turned up a little today actually)

  • GEX levels - Meh


Keeping it pragmatic tonight -strapped for time. Would like to revisit some friends here again just as a check up.


XHB - gone nowhere in over 60 days. New home building renaissance coming or going the other direction...tbd


XRT - retail clean chart now...all FVGs lower...retail renaissance coming? Hard to believe.


INFLATION? - so much inflation being created. So much growth in the pipeline. See below


Agriculture - ummm....nope.

Base metals - ummm...nope. Still underwater...


Commodities ... ummm nope. Looks like a dead cat bounce...


Retail and homebuilders going to new highs on closed stores and mortgage defaults? Kind of like inflation without commodities...guess that would make it imagiflation? Just not seeing inflation that is being claimed as victorious by buy side folks. Yeah equities blah blah blah (just a side show at this point) but the dollar is not even close to dead long term, volatility was green today, and bonds were perfectly within range. There is so much bull shit banter going on right now...guess this is what happens when the world stops in its tracks and the only thing to do is buy stocks? Noise is at an all time high.

Been saying this 3180-3190 level was the line in the sand for a while. Proving to be the case today with VIX green. Will VIX wilt and inflation win? Contrary to recent belief that I have a crystal ball, I actually have no edge here and am watching just like you. Have to see how this plays out over the next few days. My bet is this is not going to be as easy as everyone thinks it is into the summer...

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeaways: Happy July 6th! The day of stocks independence!


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeaways: Gov bonds all that is red. Worthless trash.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeaways: World is green.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary:


VXX was taken out back this morning...but it pulled the Jet-Li move and killed the bad guys trying to execute it but still hasn't made it off the bad guys compound yet...more to come in the next episode.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: What? Bears?! Nah.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Green bullish pacman chewing up bears.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Meh


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Follow through today but kinda meh


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: If this gets bullish here not standing in the way.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Starting to bottom out...


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Meh could be stronger...seems unsure if this is really bullish yet.


INTERNALS Summary:


Bulls with the ball. See if they can run to it like Bo...

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral (MORE CALL BUYING AGAIN in the AM)

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: No FVGs now...let's see what buyers and sellers decide to do.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: Bullish until it isn't. Total bubble action here. If it doesn't break down stand aside or take OTM flyers...

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

SMH Summary: Stopped shorts. Similar to QQQ. Bullish until it isn't.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Excessive Put Buying (seems skewed though so discount it)

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: Heading to fill the upside FVG - bears got shoved in the water from the Sunday gif lol.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Super indecisive. This is undoubtedly the weakest link. Let's see what the rest of the week brings.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

XLF Summary: So weak comparably but should fill upside FVGs this week if nothing else. Internals are collapsing...

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: This is a zombie now...Fed will own more than 50% within next 60 days at this pace (or more).


TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Looking solid still for upside continuation in the medium term.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Internals busted up and through today...GEX positive...once momentum resets we will find out where we are at for the next leg.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Gold and tech stocks BIATTTCHHH...'Gold-tech bugs?!'

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Still looking at 17.40...needs to get through it with umph.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Still under high from May.

THE END

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