7/8/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


LIMBO (w/ POSITIVE BIAS)

What this means: Tomorrow 3180 to the upside is now on deck to be tested. Feels like they are just messing with us.


When could this technically flip regimes: Nirvana over 3180 with gusto. Doom is now 3120 and below. Very very tight range here...


Tomorrow should bring more clarity to what happens now...we hope. What a circle jerk this has been for the last 60 days...

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX they finally got Jet Li today -4.59% and VXX -2.52%

  • UUP was sold today -0.53%

  • TLT was sold today -0.40%

  • SPY was bought today +0.76%

  • QQQ was bought today +1.32%

  • IWM was bought today +0.75%

  • SMH was bought today +1.43%

  • FAANGs all Greennnn

  • HYG was bought today +0.27%

  • XLF was bought today +1.05%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:


J-Rome and the Manuch letting us know what happens when we short and they unleash the ES red-rover algo at 247PM EST..."red rover, red rover, bring those shorts right over...so we can..."

Ok, so where are we today based on the macro trends we are tracking:

  • COVID19 cases - Evidently things are going so well in Florida that Gov. DeSantis decided that he doesn't see the need record hospitalizations, deaths, or new cases...rigggghhhhttt...

  • US/China relations - still arguing about TikTok

  • $USD - Red

  • Bonds (TLT) - Red

  • VOLS (especially 60+ days out) - Red

  • GEX levels - Green


Super slammed tonight. So this is brief. Over $3180 is all bulls (really over $3200 is all bulls.) Precious metals all breaking out overhead resistances today and BTC looks bullish so inflationary environment is boiling on the stove...are we going full weimar here?


Other situation here could be an epic head fake before the deflation and hopelessness sets in. We will know shortly. Little to no wiggle room left in this car. Somebody is about to get thrown out...us staying here in this tight range since April is pretty spent. We are going somewhere in short order and we are going there RAPIDLY.


Range bound always precedes range expansion...big time and space rangebound action precede big range expansion...

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeaways: Bulls in charge.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV BONDS:

Sector Takeaways: Gold space hot today.


SECTORS BONDS/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeaways: Emerging markets really hot right now.


SECTORS BONDS/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeaways: Dollar hit hard today.

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

VIX/VXX Summary:


Will this get executed tomorrow or is this the ultimate head fake? GEX shrunk today and moving towards positive and massive buying under the surface.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: All bulls - very strong.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Was red until 3PM.


200 DMA:

Takeaway: Recovery


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: Double recovery.


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Triple recovery.


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: Still getting slammed.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: Weak still...


INTERNALS Summary:


Recovered from Tuesday. Still sitting in middle - could go either way which makes sense right here. But no edge either way.


INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: SPY VOL Term Structure


SPY Summary: SPY with VOLS up, block selling, internals below zero line and dropping, but big intraday moves...smells fishy to me. Head fake or follow through tomorrow?

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: QQQ Volatility Term Structure

QQQ Summary: Bulls. The end.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

SMH Summary: Stopped out again. Bulls. All bulls. No mercy.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: DIA Volatility Term Structure

DIA Summary: Still looks like shit but price is rising. VOLs is up, GEX negative, internals dropped more today, block selling, but momentum is up...so we go up for now.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

Volatility Metrics: IWM Volatility Term Structure

IWM Summary: Still a steaming pile of shit.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

XLF Summary: Just look at the selling in the third frame today...nice. As well internals keep dropping. This gets me excited. Bring this up to the red FVGs please...

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: This is the biggest theft in the history of the US. There will be courts and trials on what has gone down with HYG, BKLN, and LQD before the end of this decade - mark my words. But it will all get hung on an intern...

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

TLT Summary: Over $167 this is gone. Long. Nothing changed for me.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: No change for me. Price just down a little.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Bullish

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Getting jiggy. This the end of this bull phase and going to correct now OR go nuclear? Odds favor the latter.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: Finally did it. $17.50. If there is follow through now ... could be gnarly upside awaiting. Follow through important.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: This is the weekly chart. Next stop looks like $42-43 unless the wheels come off.

THE END

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