6/2/20 MARKET CLOSE Update - Consolidated Analysis

This is my singular thread that encompasses all areas of review for the day in the Hunger Markets.

PRIMARY MARKET REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE:


EQUITY NIRVANA

What this means: Robots/OTFs/Pensions are buying the dip until they aren't.

When could this flip regimes: $2965 SPX is the primary (larger GEX flip) and $2990 is the warning shot.


Robots bought the 350PM OTF as described today for a +1% gain in last 10 min. Let's visit a live interview of Robinhood can't lose call buyers to get their reaction!

TODAY'S ACTION:


VIX and VXX got the wrong impression that they could face the hunger bots today and they were taken behind the woodshed at 3PM today and closed materially down after being solid most of the day... VIX -4.92% and VXX -2.78%

  • UUP we may have a bottom being put in here -0.11%

  • TLT just will not let go of the 161 level down only -0.36%

  • SPY bulls were ramped but faded but saved +0.83%

  • QQQ bulls were ramped but faded but saved +0.30%

  • IWM bulls were ramped but faded but saved +0.96%

  • SMH bulls were ramped but faded but saved +2.00%

  • FAANGs all green - what's new

  • HYG +0.99% heading for the 9+ year breakout! GTFO

  • XLF feeling good on Wells news that they are dropping all car dealers also GTFO +0.80%


J-ROME AND THE MANUCH AT THE CLOSE ZOOM CAM:

The markets were ramped, then dropped, then saved, then dropped, then the old shove it up the ... at 350PM made it all ok. Job well done guys. Even a 12 yr old newly minted day trader knows to buy at 345PM now everyday.


Notable today that dollar was bid all day after the morning beating and 20 yr keeps holding 161. Rotation out of things momo (which is literally every bag holding ETF) was visible today as was epic fail in BTC (rotation), SLV struggled at big line (rotation), and miners clubbed like a baby seal (rotation). However, VIX was mauled at 345PM and the race to sub 25 is on now. Can they get it done??? That is the $7 trillion dollar question. But that is just 30 day VIX ... they have no prayer to pull down 60 day plus. Take the under on that. $7+ trillion to just get VIX sub 25 for 30 day window? Guys c'mon but that seems quite expensive no?


Indexes still fully in the equity nirvana cycle and will remain as such until moral improves. So trade accordingly until it changes. We have added the VIX structures per ETF for your amusement for each prime index below (check them out) and I sense a distrubence in the force today starting to brew...but we will have to see if it materializes or not next few days or if I have to go back to Jedi school.

SECTORS BROAD MARKET:

Sector Takeways: Don't worry that red is just in PMs. Trash.


SECTORS BONDS/GOV/SOME COUNTRIES:

Sector Takeways: Gov bonds ewww. High Yield...yeasss! Other countries - green with weakness in $USD.

SECTORS SOME MORE COUNTRIES & FEW CURRENCIES:

Sector Takeways: Other currencies and other markets were green because of the dollar weakness. Yen was trash today...

VOLATILITY:


VIX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish (x-over)

Internals: N/A

Block Volume: N/A


VXX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bearish (x-over)

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Negative


VIX/VXX Summary: VIX and VXX mentioned above that they were mauled at 345PM like one of those African safari's gone bad. The beatings will continue until moral improves. But, GEX shows $31 level as interesting support and that is also what I have as VPOC on our charting. I think that is floor for now. Until it isn't. Sub that we are going to new highs in SPY or at least fill the gap.

INTERNALS


TRIN:

Takeaway: 2 bulls and 2 bears.


ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: BBULLLLLISSSH


NYSE ADVANCERS/DECLINERS:

Takeaway: We are back at the MSL test now. Go enough left in the tank to pierce it?


CUMULATIVE VOLUME:

Takeaway: Back to the MSL again.


THE DJT: nothing new today...


Takeaway: Unknown. Will he strike again in after hours?


ABSOLUTE BREADTH:

Takeaway: MONITOR. Staying elevated and momentum is not dropping but could if it catches speed tomorrow...right now seems this remains elevated for more volatility.


MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR:

Takeaway: We are in the sell zone - trip higher in store to embedded or Rare Air?


INTERNALS Summary: Today was very straight forward to the last 15 min. Honestly the charts were super clean, readings easy to process and then poof...everything got ultra wonky. That happens when 1 tick order moves the ES futures 1%. Since it is the correlative derivative instrument, goosing it gooses everything. Let's see how all these look tomorrow.

INDEXES:


SPY: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

SPY VIX: Elevated Volatility


SPY Summary: We are above 306 and below 312. The volatilty structure is all in orange/red readings. This means it is hot (vs. green when low). Adding this for everyone shares why my sentiment is not so peachy. Can we go higher, yes. Will it be violent regardless, yes. Until this structure goes back green only it will be a painful ride both directions.

QQQ: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Positive

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

QQQ VIX:


QQQ Summary: QQQ at the top end of the range. Elevated VOL structure but still plugging on to newer highs for this move. Either we are going to break ATH (and head much higher technically) or we are going to pull back/correct/worse up here. Binary now.

SMH: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Neutral

SMH Summary: Still jury out on the orange line break.

DIA: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

DIA VIX:


DIA Summary: Dow Jones no directional bias provided today b/c the last 15 min push muddied up the reading. VOL very elevated especially short term.

IWM: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Negative

Put/Call Ratio: Neutral

IWM VIX:


IWM Summary: This has massive resistance at 147-150. Short term VOL very elevated. This should not make another high if truly bearish in its intentions. Otherwise we test 150.

BANKS & HIGH YIELD CREDIT:


XLF: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bearish

Momentum: Neutral

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

XLF Summary: Banks up again today on the end of day ramp it up the ... and like the ultimate downer relative


because of things like this news today where Wells Fargo annoucned it is expecting so many defaults that they are cutting off auto dealership lending (and from what I understand they are the largest/one of the largest in the space). Short term over $24.50 goes to $26.

HYG: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Neutral

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Negative

HYG Summary: Break out of the box and headed for the pink line?! I can smell the speeches in the rich mahogany filled rooms now:

TREASURIES, $USD, and PRECIOUS METALS


TLT: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Neutral

GEX: Neutral/Negative

TLT Summary: Still getting bought at 161 level.

UUP: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Full Reset

Internals: Neutral

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

UUP Summary: Market Structure is at play unless this turns here. I suspect that it is a bottom trying to be formed here so a turn could be imminent.

GLD: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Bullish

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GLD Summary: Bullish rebound failed today. If it follows down tomorrow next leg down in a corrective environment is at play.

SLV: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bullish

Internals: Positive

Block Volume: Positive

GEX: Positive

SLV Summary: 2 attempts at 17.30 level. 2 failures. Fail here puts this in correction camp for a while as we have been discussing.

GDX: Chart with Detailed Levels

Market Structure: Bullish

Momentum: Bearish

Internals: Negative

Block Volume: Negative

GEX: Positive

GDX Summary: Momo flipped down and internals collapsed. Price hammered. Look for more downside more than likely. Seems this is being rotated out of.

THE END.



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